Ed Hawkins picks out a pacer to follow at 23/10 as the struggling Renegades take on the Sixers in Geelong on Tuesday...
"Richardson has by far the best strike rate of his team-mates with a wicket every 13 balls this term. In short, he has very little to beat."
Melbourne Renegades v Sydney Sixers
Tuesday 11 January 08.15
TV: live on Sky Sports
Normal service has resumed for Renegades. They got lucky facing teams who were ravaged by Covid but when they came up against a reasonably healthy side they were smashed.
Sydney Thunder, increasingly looking like the best team in it, made 209 and then bowled out Renegades for just 80. They are a hopeless outfit.
Unfortunately Covid has meant that they are likely to finish in a false position, ie not bottom. That's bad news for those of us who took decent prices about the wooden spoon in good faith.
Leggie Cameron Boyce looks set to make his first appearance for two years but Mohammad Nabi and James Pattinson are out of the tournament for personal reasons and fatigue respectively.
Probable XI: Harper, Finch, Marsh, Maddinson, Harvey, Seymour, Sutherland, Richard-son, Lalor, Boyce, Zahir
Wait on Sixers news
The Sixers have not yet named a squad, which is never good news for a tournament made farcical by the pandemic. Fingers crossed it's not because they have a raft of absentees but so far they have been unhindered.
Moises Henriques missed the defeat by Perth Scorchers last time so we await to see if he is involved. There is no James Vince, who has returned to England. Shadab Khan was back for the Scorchers clash but suffered with an economy rate of nine an over.
With players like Henriques (potentially) and Vince missing Sixers suddenly don't seem so assured. They lost both games against Scorchers and would have been frustrated by the abandonment against Renegades earlier on, denying them bonus points.
Possible XI: Philippe, Avendano, J Edwards, D Hughes, Silk, Christian, Kerr, Shadab, Dwarshius, Bird, Murphy
There has been only one match at Geelong so far this tournament. A third-string Brisbane Heat could manage only 128 against Renegades, who chased with five overs to spare.
Previously there had been only three matches in the Bash in the last three years at Geelong. Renegades lost each of them. Last January Perth defended 178 while in 2019 Thunder chased 169 and Strikers defended 158. Including all matches at the ground (just eight) the averages first-innings score is 158.
We would expect Sixers to post a minimum of 170. So too will the market. Look for a decent price for 190 or more. No rain is forecast at the moment.
Sixers a bet if all well
The Sixers are as big as 1.728/11 on the exchange which suggests there might be some folk out there who reckon that they will be below strength.
But if they were to line-up like they did against the Scorchers, we would still expect a price to be in the region of 1.654/6. If we could be sure of that XI being available we'd be all over such a price, particularly as Renegades have been weakened.
The best advice is to wait for the Sixers team news and if there is nothing untoward a three-point wager is all well and good.
With Pattinson and Nabi both listed for top Renegades bowler, it is arguable that Kane Richardson is value. He is 23/10and has by far the best strike rate of his team-mates with a wicket every 13 balls this term. Reece Topley has also flown home don't forget. In short, he has very little to beat.
Aaron Finch are 5/2 and 3/1 respectively for top Renegades bat. For Sixers, opener Josh Philippe has appeal because he has a history of taking the Renegades bowlers to the cleaners. He is 11/5 and 4/1 for top match bat. Bet Sportsbook markets here.
Although we are down on Renegades a case could be made for them taking most sixes at 13/10 with Sportsbook. If Sixers are without Henriques their powergame is depleted, especially with Vince not involved.
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