Ed Hawkins worries it could be an uneven in the Melbourne derby in the Big Bash on Wednesday so eyes top-bat value for his best bet...
"Stoinis' main rival is Maxwell, whose rate is 29%. That gives us 5.2% implied probability points in our favour"
Melbourne Renegades v Melbourne Stars
Wednesday 20 January 08.15
TV: live on BT Sport
Renegades are destined for another bottom-placed finish after recording only two wins all season. The one-man show responsible for one of those, Mohammad Nabi, is no longer with them. Their plight is bleak.
It is perhaps personified by the struggles of Aaron Finch. Looking every inch a big man now in the wrong respect, Finch is yet to top score and has not managed more than 18 in his last six innings.
Finch has bemoaned losing "small moments" this tournament which seems at odds with the three biggest Bash defeats in history. They have been, perhaps, unfortunate with personnel. Imran Tahir never turned up and Rilee Rossouw has been injured. But there's no excuse for their malaise really given the talent they boast.
Possible XI Finch, Marsh, Harper, Fraser-McGurk, Harvey, Webster, Imad, Sutherlands, Richardson, Hatzoglou, Ahmad.
With back-to-back wins Stars are back on track for qualification just as a win of four defeats in five threatened to derail the pre-tournament favourites. True, one of those successes was against Renegades but they were in fabulous touch against Strikers.
Stars showed why they are the most feared batting line-up when posting 189 against Strikers. Andre Fletcher whacked 89 of them off just 49 balls while Glenn Maxwell and Hilton Cartwright chipped in with destructive cameos. Their spinners then spun a web to knock over their opponents for just 68. Adam Zampa took five wickets, Maxwell two and Zahir Khan two. That trio will cause batting outfits plenty of stress.
They are far from perfectly balanced, though. Zampa should be no way near number eight while Nic Maddinson and Seb Gotch ahead of him are fortunate to have deals. Although there is no better top four, there is a lot of pressure for them to do the business.
Possible XI Fletcher, Stoinis, Larkin, Maxwell, Cartwright, Maddinson, Gotch, Zampa, Stanlake, Rauf, Zahir.
This one comes from Docklands, the Renegades' home ground. It is the first match played there this season. The average score over the last five tournaments batting first is 163, there is a toss bias with only 41% winning after batting first but 58% of sides bust 160. The biggest chase is 222 so this is a wicket which holds true.
Hope for Stars trade
If Renegades reckon they will be comforted by a return home, they are mistaken. They have a poor record at Docklands, winning only 16 of their 40 matches. Stars have beaten their cross-town rivals in six of the last seven head-to-heads while Renegades have only won two of these derbies on home turf.
Not surprisingly, Stars are short favourites at 1.608/13. We don't play at such numbers but will look for a trade if the toss goes their way. Batting second we must hope that Renegades are able to get a foothold before that Stars top-order gets stuck in. We will keep our fingers crossed for 1.804/5 but it may never come.
Marcus Stoinis and Nick Larkin shared top-bat honours for Stars against Renegades last time. Stoinis has been price-boosted from 11/5 to 13/5. Larkin is 9/5. Stoinis has a win rate of 37.5% in the last three years in the competition so we have a 3.2% edge in our favour. His main rival is Maxwell, whose rate is 29%. That gives us 5.2% implied probability points in our favour.
Finch is overdue but we have to swerve him at 5/2. Instead, look out for Jake Fraser-McGurk at 15/2. There is no evidence that he's value other than he's a strong young player with a barrow-load of talent.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets year end