Ed Hawkins previews Thursday's Big Bash clash from Adelaide and picks out two top-bat bets at big prices...
"Turner is down to a win rate of 16% on top bat in the last three competitions (including this one). But there is no justification for Sportsbook pushing him out from 13/2 for the previous Adelaide clash to 9/1."
Adelaide Strikers v Perth Scorchers
Thursday 31 December, 08:15
TV: live on BT Sport
Strikers briefly went top of the pile with their hammering of Scorchers on Monday. They are sitting pretty with three wins from five and Rashid Khan looking back to his best after a hamstring problem.
They are expected to be unchanged following the 71-run success. After posting 165 with Phil Salt finding his range in the opening berth, Strikers turned the screw expertly. Perth were bowled out for just 94.
Rashid took two for 18 and the man of the match award (a cameo with the bat helped) but Wes Agar, Dan Worrall, Peter Siddle and Danny Briggs each picked up two wickets apiece.
Possible XI Weatherald, Salt, Renshaw, Carey, Wells, Short, Conway, Rashid, Briggs, Worrall, Siddle, W Agar
Scorchers burning up
Perth are officially in crisis. The second-favourites for glory, who boast one of the best balanced XIs in the competition, have not a win to their name in three attempts with one washout.
For the game against Strikers a target of 166 should have been well within the reach of a batting line-up which includes Jason Roy, Colin Munro, Liam Livingstone, Mitch Marsh and Ashton Turner. They probably have the strongest top six around.
Something is clearly wrong. It is not talent and one will soon have to start questioning attitude and application. Are previously consistent performers all leaving it to each other?
Possible XI Roy, Inglis, Munro, Livingstone, M Marsh, A Turner, Hardie, Richardson, Tye, Behrendorff, Ahmed
The Adelaide Oval is one for defenders. There's a 64% bias for the team batting first in the last five competitions. This is the first match played at the venue in this year's campaign. The average score batting first is 161 and 68% of sides batting first bust the 160 mark. The highest score batting first is 217 and the biggest chase is 183. Pushing on for 180 or more doesn't seem too risky with scoring so consistent first up.
Watch Scorchers price
Desperate for a win, another match against Strikers is Perth's worst nightmare. They have now lost their last four on the head-to-head and have lost five of their last six at Adelaide Oval.
The match odds market had Perth strong favourites for the encounter on Monday. Not so this time. It's a choice affair with both hovering around a shade under 2.001/1.
Given the toss bias, that is fair. Were Strikers to win the flip and use that heavy toss bias in their favour by defending, they are likely to come down to 1.804/5, possibly shorter.
Perth may well be worth a risk batting first for a trade as there is chance the market might not take a bite out of their price.
Turner and Wells value
Turner is down to a win rate of 16% on top bat in the last three competitions (including this one). But there is no justification for Sportsbook pushing him out from 13/2 for the previous Adelaide clash to 9/1. A 9/1 chance is implied probability of 10%. Kurtis Paterson, Sam Whiteman and Cameron Bancroft are all shorter. None will play and if they did they would bat behind him.
It should also be pointed out that Josh Inglis, the Perth opener, is toppy at 4s. It's a big price about someone who has an opportunity to bat for longest.
For Strikers, we like Jono Wells at 13/2. That is also a drift from 6/1. Wells has one win to his name this season and on the same data filter as Turner has a win rate of 26%. That gives us an edge of more than 12% points.
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running match advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. New points system (0.5pt-5) introduced for 2017. Includes Hawk-Eye stats column p-l & COB Best Bets