Sri Lanka v Australia Second ODI Tips: Time for Zampa bet at 13/5

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Sri Lanka v Australia
Friday 14 February, 04:30
TV: live on TNT Sports

Sri Lanka v Australia Second ODI team news

Charith Asalanka produced an extraordinary innings to land Sri Lanka a 1-0 lead with one to play. Asalanka hit 127 off 126 balls in a total of 214. And then claimed the wicket of Alex Carey, who looked like hitting Australia to the win.

We don't expect a change in personnel but it is probable that Sri Lanka bowl even more spin. Pacers Eshan Malinga and Asitha Fernando bowled only nine overs between them. Kamindu Mendis gives them an option to bowl at 50 overs of tweak. They could even add another batter at the expense of one of those pacers and Liyanage has decent medium pace.

Probable Sri Lanka XI: Nissanka, Avishka, Kusal Mendis, Kamindu, Asalanka, Liyanage, Wellalage, Hasaranga, Theekshana, Malinga, Asitha

Australia's warm-up for the Champions trophy is not going to plan. A 49-run defeat and Mitchell Starc ruling himself out of this series and the tournament is far from ideal.

Travis Head, Glenn Maxwell and Josh Inglis, who sat out game one, could play as Australia would be advised to treat the game as if the tournament was live. Cooper Connolly, Jake Fraser-McGurk and Aaron Hardie may miss out. The Aussies used only two spinners and with Head and Maxwell their options will be strengthened. 

Probable Australia XI: Head, Short, Inglis, Smith, Labuschagne, Maxwell, Carey, Abbott, Zampa, Ellis, Johnson

Sri Lanka v Australia Second ODI pitch report

As expected, the RPS was a dung heap and Sri Lanka, Asalanka aside, laboured to 214. It's stodgy, tacky nature was confirmed when Australia were reduced to 31 for four. Australia can at least console themselves that in Pakistan they will have much better batting wickets to deal with.

The par lines are likely to be set in the mid 240s, 250s. Both look like shorts. The surface just isn't getting any better. Eight of the last ten first-innings have come in under 250. In-play keep hitting unders particularly with a partnership of 30-40. 

Sri Lanka v Australia Second ODI match prediction

Sri Lanka are into 2.588/5 from 3.002/1 for the series win. Australia have drifted slightly to 1.625/8. It is a very poor price about Australia and they have to rate as a solid lay.

There is a school of thought that the toss is key. Bat first, battle to 220 and then let a wearing surface do the rest. Australia are capable of that route to victory but the gap in odds cannot be justified. 

It will be interesting to see how the market reacts if Sri Lanka bat first and post something similar. One would assume Australia shorten. If not, anything around 240-250 for Sri Lanka would see them value in-play as they should be odds-on. 

Sri Lanka v  Australia Second ODI player bets

Australia missed a trick by not utilising Adam Zampa enough. He was a surprise selection as he hadn't been named in the published squad. That meant we missed the chance to bet him for top bowler. It was fortunate as he bowled only six overs and was wicketless. Zampa is a bowler who needs time to get into his rhythm but the pitch should speed up that process. His win rate is the best in the world in the last two years at 38% so we're happy to play the 13/53.60 he takes most wickets for the visitors.

Asalanka's innings was a freak and it is more likely that a 40-odd (as Carey proved in winning for us at 9s) is the way to go for top-bat bets. That brings in a host of lower-order batters at big numbers. We like Janith Liyanage at 8s and Dunith Wellalage at 18s for the hosts. Sean Abbott at 40/141.00 for Australia looks chunky. 

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