New Zealand v Australia Second Test Tips: Kane more than able at 7/2

• Toss could be important

• No rain forecast

• Williamson stands out

New Zealand v Australia
Thursday 7 March, 22.00
TV: Live on TNT

New Zealand v Australia Second Test team news

Devon Conway remains sidelined with a finger injury and pacer Will O'Rourke is out with a hamstring injury. Ben Sears replaces the latter for debut. The challenge for the Kiwis, though, is getting the combination right.

They misread the pitch in Wellington and were a spinner short with Mitchell Santner left out. It will be a test of how on it they are if they knee-jerk and pick Santner regardless. This may not be a surface for the spinners.

Even so Scott Kuggelijn was underwhelming and they may fancy Santner as someone more obdurate. The former was criticised for injudicious decisions.

Probable XI: Latham, Young, Williamson, Ravindra, Mitchell, Blundell, Phillips, Kuggelijn/Santner, Henry, Southee, Sears

Australia should be unchanged. Cameron Green's coming-of-age ton in game one swung them the match while Nathan Lyon maintained his menace.

There are issues for the Aussies with the bat, though. Steve Smith doesn't look like an opener and Marnus Labuschagne is in a rut. Alex Carey's post Bairstow-stumping row form-slump continues.

Probable XI: Smith, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Green, Head, M Marsh, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Lyon, Hazlewood

New Zealand v Australia Second Test pitch report

There has been one draw in 12 at the Hagley Oval. Seven from 11 results have been won by the side batting first. New Zealand chased 285 in the fourth against Sri Lanka last March while in 2022 South Africa were rolled for 95.

There will be a temptation to short the Kiwi runs but there have been some big scores in recent games. More than 350 has been busted in six of the previous 12 first- and second-innings, including 482, 521 and 659.

We have more faith that the Australians can go big because of the flaky nature of the hosts. It might be possible to get evens at around the 330 mark.

New Zealand v Australia Second Test match odds

New Zealand have beaten Australia once in Test cricket since 1993. It was not hard to see why from game one at the Basin Reserve.

For a start skip Tim Southee misread the pitch, which is quite something given home advantage. He then failed to spot its nature in-play. Glenn Phillips got the Kiwis back in the game once Southee had seen what damage Lyon had done.

The hosts may well have a good go, get themselves in a position of strength and then falter. They are masters at it so a trade is the best advice from 3.7511/4 keeping the toss bias on side. We're happy to sit and wait for a price on Australia in-play from 1.804/5 (batting first, too). A similar strategy worked well in the first Test and is the preferred option.

New Zealand v Australia Second Test player bets

There are top-bat fancies to get involved with. First Kane Williamson who has been boosted to 7/24.50 on his 100th Test. He has a 30% win rate in the last two years and Sportsbook rate him at 22.2%.

For Australia we'll go back in on Usman Khawaja at 4/15.00. Khawaja is winning at a rate of 34% so there's a 14% swing in our favour.

We also make a note of the 100/1101.00 on Southee for top Kiwi bat in first-innings.

There's 2.2% points for the punters on the 13/53.60 for Pat Cummins top Aussie bowler in the first dig. Lyon has the same win rate, remarkably, but it might be more favourable conditions for the pacer.

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