New Zealand v Australia First T20 tips: Kiwis value in a chase

• Kiwis value for game one in chase

• Mount Manganui favous side bat second
• Maxwell late withdrawal for Australia

• Tilak and Hardik catch eye

• Hasan & Rauf for Pakistan

New Zealand v Australia
Wednesday 1 October, 07:15
TV: Live on TNT

New Zealand v Australia First T20 team news

New Zealand have suffered an early blow with Rachin Ravindra a doubt for game one. The all-rounder crashed into advertising hoardings in training and suffered cuts. He will undergo a concussion test which could rule him out. If so, Tim Robinson could come in at No 3. 

With no Finn Allen or Glenn Phillips the Kiwi firepower isn't quite what it could be. Devon Conway and Daryl Mitchell have the potential to be sticking points in the quest for fast runs. They need to get Bevon Jacobs, Mark Chapman and Michael Bracewell, who leads, involved.

Kyle Jamieson balances the XI at No 8 and in Jacob Duffy and Matt Henry they have two excellent pace options for the new ball. 

Possible New Zealand XI: Seifert, Conway, Ravindra, Mitchell, Chapman, Jacobs, Bracewell, Foukes, Jamieson, Henry, Duffy

Australia have lost Glenn Maxwell to injury in a late withdrawal. It means they are not at full strength with Josh Inglis and Cameron Green also out. The main beneficiary will be Matt Short who looks certain to bat at first drop.

The batting still looks strong and Tim David, averaging four sixes a game over his last 10, heads a dangerous middle order with Mitch Owen and Marcus Stoinis to come. 

Josh Hazlewood is attack leader and Adam Zampa wily even though he's stronger in ODI. Sean Abbott and Xavier Bartlett compete for the bowling all-rounder slot with Ben Dwarshuis in possession. 

Possible Australia XI: Head, Marsh, Short, David, Stoinis, Owen, Carey, Dwarshuis, Bartlett/Abbott, Zampa, Hazlewood

New Zealand v Australia First T20 pitch report

There is a heavy toss bias at the Bay Oval, Mount Manganui. In the last 30 matches 67% of games have been won by the chaser. Not surprisingly, first-innings averages are low at 144.7. The average number of sixes per game is nine. Betfair Sportsbook go over/under total match sixes at 15.5 but we are wary of that because 10-game team averages suggest these two are busting that mark by one. 

Where ground and team stats do marry is Kiwi total runs. Sportsbook go over/under 171.5. That has the feel of a short at 5/61.84 considering New Zealand's average total per game over the last 10 is 158. There's no rain forecast currently but it is very early summer in New Zealand so this could change. 

New Zealand v Australia first T20 match prediction

Australia are hot favourites for this one having won 10 of their last 11 T20 and their last three against their neighbours. But could this warm order singe the fingers at 1.501/2?

It is hard not to reckon that a durable, competitive Kiwis have a shout here at 2.962/1, particularly if we keep that toss bias on side. Sure, it is a concern that the bulk of those games are in domestic cricket but it is hard to ignore them. For example, one would feel a right mug backing Australia blind pre-toss only for the bias to go against them.

On that basis, a value case can be made for New Zealand. They have limitations with the bat but they match Australia with that new-ball attack. It is vital the Duffy-Henry pairing cause the top order problems. With the bat Tim Seifert's fine run of form would need to continue. 

New Zealand v Australia first T20 player bets

Speaking of Seifert, the Kiwi hitter is in rare touch. He has a 50% win rate on the top bat market in his last 10 and also continued his touch in franchise cricket. He should be favourite here as he can quickly outscore Devon Conway. Sportsbook's 16/54.20 is value. 

We go against the tide somewhat for top Kiwi bowler. Duffy is outperforming the brilliant Henry with seven wins in his last 13. That record should mean he is shorter than 11/43.75. 

Travis Head wins top bat for the Aussies in all matches since the start of the last T20 World Cup 33% of the time so the 3/14.00 should prove popular. 

Now watch the latest episode of Stick To Cricket with special guest Rob Key