Australia v Sr Lanka Second T20 Tips: Maxwell underrated for runs

Ed Hawkins
12 February 2022
2:30 min read

Maxwell is value at 5/1

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Ed Hawkins previews game two from the SCG on Sunday and picks out a 5/1 bet...

"Maxwell has a career win rate which suggests he should be shorter. The edge is just over one per cent."

(1pt) Back Glenn Maxwell top Australia bat 6.05/1 .

Australia v Sri Lanka
Sunday 13 February, 08:10
TV: live on BT Sport

United lose Stirling

Australia are 1-0 up but they needed their bowlers - and some weather - to get them out of a hole in the first game at the SCG.

The world champions produced a classic Aussie white-ball batting performance, the type which many believed made them such a terrible price on the outright for the tournament. They reverted to type. The platform was there with the bat but they fell away horribly, failing to accelerate.

They are an interesting study case. Let's take batting Steve Smith in the middle order as an example. Around the world in franchise leagues you have pure, destructive hitters in that role. Like an Azam Khan or Tim David if we're thinking PSL. It's not Smith's fault but it highlights Australia's retrograde thinking.

Probable XI: Finch, McDermott, Inglis, Maxwell, Smith, Stoinis, Wade, Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood, Zampa.

Batting woes

Sri Lanka did well to tie down Australia just when it looked like they might ac-celerate to something unmanageable. They will be bitterly disappointed they did not make a better fist of the chase of 143.

It was a familiar story. Their bowlers have often not only kept them in the game but got them ahead of it. Only for the batters to flop.

Sri Lanka lost two wickets in the first three overs to undermine confidence and then five for 26.
How ironic that Kusal Mendis was unavailable for his first game back after a ban for breaking Covid curfew rules...because he has caught Covid.

Possible XI: Nissanka, Gunathilaka, Avishka, Asalanka, Wanindu, Shanaka, Chandimal, Karunaratne, Chameera, Theekshana

Pitch report

Australia's 149 batting first looks in isolation a poor score. When you add in the context of the Big Bash when there were three scores of 190 or more in the recent Big Bash.

However, over the long study period, which is what should count, they were only slight below an average score, which came in at a mark of 155 in the last five years.

There was obviously grip for spinners with Wanindu Hasaranga and Adam Zampa claiming six between them and Marcus Stoinis being miserly by taking pace off.

It means we should consider flipping from pre-game one ideas. Shorting runs par lines in the mid-160s for Australia is not a bad plan. Likewise Sri Lanka in mid 150s. The market is here.

Lanka need to defend

As much as Australia's lack of acceleration with the bat bugs us, it's not really a strong enough reason to start loading up on the Lankans.

The problem they have got is far bigger. Their batting is just not good enough, particularly when they leave behind a gun hitter like Rajapaksa.

It is true this weakness looks more acute than it might otherwise be when they come up against such a stellar bowling attack. Josh Hazlewood, Pat Cummins Mitchell Starc and Zampa is superb.

If we're going to risk a trade at 6.4011/2 we need Sri Lanka to bat first. If they can squeeze 150 they can then put a squeeze on themselves with the surface assisting. Ifs, buts, maybes, though.

Tops value

Ben McDermott brought a semblance of Bash form in topping in the first match for Australia. He is 11/4 favourite for a repeat with Aaron Finch boosted to 10/3. Glenn Maxwell is a price at 5/1. He has a career win rate which suggests he should be shorter. The edge is just over one per cent.

For Sri Lanka, Chamika Karunaratne is a standout at 30s. Sportsbook are alive to a 20 or 30 being enough so Hasaranga is into 12s from previously 30s.

Hazlewood took four Sri Lanka wickets for top bowler for Australia. He is 16/5. He should have won man of the match. He's 14/1 for the gong. Zampa, who pipped him, is 13/1. Bet these markets here.

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Ed Hawkins P-L

2022: +7.85
2021: +29.41pts
2020: +5.91pts
2019: +37.25pts
2018: +23.53pts
2017: +12pts
2016: +18.1pts
2015: +38pts
2014: +31.5pts
2013: +25pts

Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye column p-l