Australia v Pakistan Third Test Tips: Warner 6/1 for emotional match gong

• Warner plays final game

• Khawaja a bet at 7/24.50

• Aussies dominant at SCG

Australia v Pakistan
Tuesday 2 January, 23.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Australia v Pakistan Third Test team news

There will be plenty of noise about David Warner's swansong on his home ground but Australia would do well to focus on the future. Chiefly the extraordinary Pat Cummins for his ten-wickets in the second Test which secured the series. He has had quite the year.

There were vital, confidence-boosting runs for Alex Carey, too. Half-centuries for Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith when the pressure was on was also key.

There are always doubts about Mitchell Starc's ability to play back-to-back so Scott Boland comes into contention.

Possible XI: Warner, Khawaja, Labuschagne, Smith, Head, M Marsh, Carey, Cummins, Lyon, Hazlewood, Boland

Pakistan packed their batting again at the MCG but couldn't manage a chase of 317 in the fourth innings. There is no disgrace that they didn't have enough gumption to get over the line and there were nerves in the Aussie camp when they were going well at 146 for three.

Given Mohammad Hafeez, the chief selector, has effectively said Pakistan were 'robbed' by umpiring decisions they will probably keep with the same XI.

Perhaps the big difference, though, has been Australia's gun players sticking up their hands and Babar Azam left fidgeting in his pockets.

Probable XI: Shafique, Imam, Masood, Babar, Shakeel, Rizwan, Aghan, Jamal, Afridi, Hasan Ali, Hamza

Australia v Pakistan Third Test pitch report

Australia routinely duff-up bowling attacks in the first dig at the SCG. This is their record: 538 v Pakistan in 2017, 649 v England in 2018, India 622 in '19, 454 v New Zealand in 2020, 338 v India in 2021, 416 against England in 2022 and 454 against South Africa in 2023.

During that sequence only one vising team has made more than 350. Bet according on the Australia runs markets with more than 400 possible at around 1.9110/11. Pakistan are a lay in-play when a partnership is 60 or 70 ore more in the first three wickets.

Australia v Pakistan Third Test match odds

Australia are 1.4840/85, Pakistan 13.5025/2 and the draw 3.8014/5. This is what we would expect.

It is hard not to feel Pakistan's best chance has gone. They were decent at the MCG with conditions favourable but dropped catches and a lack of nous at key times did for them.

Sydney will be much tougher for them unless heavy cloud cover and some forecast showers can reduce the gap. Any drift in the first dig of the Aussie price to 1.705/7 should be snaffled.

Australia v Pakistan Third Test player bets

All eyes will be on Warner, of course. The emotional, fairytale ending where he dominates Pakistan will be enough to tempt punters into taking the 6/17.00 that he is player of the match. One cannot rule out the adjudicators making it a factor in a close contest. Still, he's not the player he was in Tests and in first-innings at least it's two wins in 24 for top bat.

We will keep faith with Usman Khawaja at 7/24.50. He has nine wins from 24 and made an unbeaten 195 on this ground in the 2023 New Year's Day Test.

Babar has six wins in 14 and although we will grudgingly stick with him, we're hoping that Sportsbook boost him to 7/24.50 from 3/14.00.

*Read Big Bash analysis here