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Australia hit by Green injury
- Inglis, Carey & Zampa also out
- Perth Stadium hosted only three ODI
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Rohit and kohli back for India
- Head win rate makes him value
Australia v India
Sunday 19 October, 04.30
TV: Live on TNT
Australia v India First ODI team news
Australia are in a bit of a mess. Players are dropping like flies while panic may be beginning to rise about their Ashes hopes. Cameron Green is the latest player to suffer an injury to put his participation in the big one in doubt.
Green has a side injury. The upshot is a recall for Marnus Labuschagne for this series. Labuschagne has been a run machine so far this season and it is a sensible pick.
There is no Josh Inglis, Alex Carey or Adam Zampa for game one. Inglis is injured, Carey is playing Sheffield Shield and Zampa awaiting the birth of his child. Matt Kuhnemann will be Australia's spinner. The hosts may be nervous about overloading Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood. They may rotate both throughout the three-game series.
Possible Australia XI: Head, Marsh, Green, Short, Phillipe, Owen, Bartlett, Dwarshuis, Starc/Hazlewood, Ellis, Kuhnemann
India have a hybrid of selection worries. They have players who are closer to raw than undercooked and others who are tired after a Test series against West Indies.
Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli are part of the former. The big two haven't played since the IPL. They may need time to get the joints moving again. Shubman Gill, KL Rahul, Nitish Reddy and Mohammed Siraj are at least warmed up after a 2-0 Windies win.
Shreyas Iyer could be crucial in the middle order. He has been working nicely for India A against Australian counterparts. Axar Patel is the fulcrum at No 6. There is no Jasprit Bumrah so Arshdeep Singh is attack leader.
Possible India XI: Rohit, Kohli, Gill, Shreyas, Rahul, Axar, Reddy, Sundar, Harshit, Arshdeep, Siraj/Prasidh
Australia v India First ODI pitch report
There have been only three ODI played at Perth Stadium. The first-innings scores have been 259, 152, 140. Australia have been responsible for the last two and have lost all three. There are also some forecast showers.
Given the churn in the Australia team and the lack of preparation for some of India's, there is a hunch that this, combined with the small study sample, might be one for unders on runs. But it's only a hunch rather than a strong angle. India are available at unders 261.5 at 10/111.91. It is not inconceivable that India could find a switch to alien conditions (pace and bounce) tricky.
Australia v India First ODI match prediction
Australia are 1.865/6 with India 2.1411/10. Could that be considered good value about the hosts despite their problems with player availability?
At this stage the feeling is yes but India are taken to grow into this series once key players find rhythm in bodies and minds. The hosts may well lean on that lack of India preparation and good, old fashioned conditions to get a 1-0 lead.
Indeed, despite the Aussies' issues there are some big-gun players who can get the job done. Travis Head is India's nemesis while Starc or Hazlewood (maybe both if Australia are gung-ho) carry significant threat. Labuschagne's form is also ominous for India.
It's not a huge fancy but there is a suspicion that there has been an overreaction to Australia. And regardless of who lines up, no side is more reliable for blood and thunder when backs are to the wall.
Australia v India First ODI player bets
There are some good win rates to take note of for the first clash. Head is the first cab off the rank. Despite patchy form across all formats, Head still has a 46% win rate on top bat in ODI. That's six wins in his last 13. Sportsbook offer 11/43.75. With the ball, Starc has three wins in seven and although that's no study sample, the 13/53.60 favourite tag for top bowler seems right.
India's big guns, Rohit and Kohli, have win rates respectively of 35% and 26%. Rohit is 4/15.00 and Kohli 16/54.20. Both, clearly, are value in terms of implied probability but we have to play a waiting game.
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