Australia

Australia v India Fifth Test In-play Tips: India remain in the hunt in thriller

Pat Cummins
Cummins and co will charge in

Ed Hawkins has all the angles, stats and bets as the series comes to conclusion on day three at the SCG on Saturday...


Australia v India
Saturday 4 December, 23:30
TV: live on TNT Sports

Australia v India Fifth Test prediction

Australia and India's odds are pretty much unchanged after a 15 wicket day at the SCG. Australia are 1.491/2 with India 3.45. The tourists have a lead of 141 with four wickets left. Ordinarily one would argue that the market is right. But is it?

After day one, the market took a clear view that the Sydney pitch was underdone and batting would be tricky. Australia and India prices were 1.434/9 and 3.953/1 respectively. And the market proved to be correct.

So with Australia likely to have to make the highest score of the match to secure a series win, it could be argued that they should be a little bigger. That opportunity to nail 1.402/5 favourite status has been missed with the failure to land a big lead.

Sure, they have fought back admirably. When Rishabh Pant was going well - he has had a cracking match in Sydney again - India were looking strong to claw their way to a series draw. With only four wickets remaining, India now need a partnership from Ravi Jadeja and Washington Sundar. Australia need one wicket to get among the bowlers.

Whether India get what they need is almost certainly down to Jadeja. He has done it before this series with a fine 77 in Brisbane. We are less convinced that Sundar is the partner he craves in terms of temperament. He did manage a 50 in Melbourne and has some more than solid numbers in his Test career. But Sundar has always had the air of a man not to be relied upon in a crisis.

Sportsbook make his runs available to short 18.5 at 5/61.84. A bit like Sam Konstas on day two, that is another clear view. With six on the board they really don't rate his chances of hanging around.

The SCG will be white hot in the first session with the Australia bowlers charging in. And it could be that tired and fractured India just wilt with Sundar setting the tone. Again Sportsbook suspect the same with the next wicket to fall only available for overs at 155.5. India are on 141.

A market which is connected but looks too high is the India total after 40 overs, available to go unders at 161.5 for even money. We had a similar bet on Australia on resumption on day two.

The rationale remains the same here. The last thing the jadeja-Sundar axis is going to do is go on the attack. And with eight overs until that 40 over mark a run rate of more than 2.62 would be risky. Surely they drop anchor in a desperate attempt to stave off collapse and certain defeat. The first hour, as the cliche goes, is crucial.



How many runs do India need?

The ifs, buts and maybes are never far away when trying to work out what happens. And there is an 'if' that we perhaps need to be aware of. The weather is set fair for day three with a pudding-type pitch now set for a baking. There is a chance that it could get better to bat on.

That may explain the thinking behind those match odds numbers. That's because if it does get better to bat on, Australia really won't be too worried about even another 100 for India.

Now for the but. But if the surface remains stodgy and bowlers continue to dominate, India are absolutely bang in the game with another 60 runs. More than 200 could be devilishly tricky. Australia's collapse to 89 for seven in their second innings will be in the minds of both teams.

Australia set around 200 should probably be closer to a choice affair. But it won't be. India will still be odds against. We would be expecting at least around 3.002/1 with 220, 230 to defend. That might not be a bad bet. And we should have a clear idea of the nature of the wicket for the fourth.


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