Washington Freedom v MI New York MLC Tips: Toss bias the key to profit

• Toss bias crucial

• New York have data edge

• Pooran price-boosted

Washington Freedom v MI New York
Thursday 27 July, 21:30
TV: Live on BT Sport

Washington Freedom team news

Freedom won three from five in the group stages and finished two points ahead of New York. They are a solid outfit rather than spectacular and perhaps have underperformed given the overseas talent at their disposal.

Anrich Nortje just hasn't taken the wickets expected and Moises Henriques could do with a big game. They were comfortably beaten by eight wickets by New York in their final group match.

Probable XI: Short, Gous, Mukhtar, Phillips, Henriques, Pienaar, Akeal, Jansen, Piedt, Netravalkar, Nortje

MI New York team news

MI New York got their house in order in the nick of time to qualify on net run rate. Nic Pooran has found form and his move to No 3 has given a top order some quality seriously lacking early on.

David Wiese has been added to the all-rounders which means there has been no room for Kagiso Rabada. That balance is much better, although there are slight doubts about Kieron Pollard's fitness.

Probable XI: Jahangir, Monank, Pooran, Pollard, David, Azzam, Wiese, Rashid Khan, Boult, Ehsan, Kenjige

Grand Prairie Stadium pitch report

We are back to the Grand Prairie Stadium for the play-offs where a burgeoning toss bias awaits. In the eight league matches played in the first leg of the tournament, seven were won by the side batting first. As for first-innings scores, 160 or more was busted five times.

There is a batting and bowling split which means the toss will be important also for that runs par line. New York average 8.8 with the bat and 7.8 with the ball in terms of run rate and Freedom 7.9 and 7.8. In short, New York are more likely to bust it.

Washington Freedom v MI New York match odds

There is a lot in New York's favour for this match with the loser knocked out. They won the head-to-head comfortably, they boast the better batting and bowling run rates and, crucially, average far more sixes per game.

But with a heavy toss bias they couldn't possibly be considered value at 1.635/8. If they bat first, sure, they should win but the improtance of the flip cannot be ignored. If Freedom get it their way, we don't expect the 2.3411/8 to shift much and they can give a good account of themselves.

Washington Freedom v MI New York player bets

Pooran and Phillips have been boosted for their top team bat respectively to 7/24.50 and 16/54.20 with Sportsbook. If Trent Boult continues his wicket-taking form there's a chance that Freedom top order gets blown away so we note the 30/131.00 about Jansen landing a big-price.