T20 World Cup Winner tips: West Indies to roll back the years

• Batting power looks key

• Windies have great chance

• Aussies so strong

• Sri Lanka the outliers

T20 World Cup winning team profile

Matter almost always trumps muscle. The sweet science pleases more than the brawler. There are only so many times one can watch a bull in a china shop and be amused. Yet you might have to be on board with the brawn for a T20 World Cup which could well be decided by six appeal. Batting power looks crucial.

One can get a warm fuzzy feeling from talking about teams with craft, skill and nuance when it comes to preventing the knuckle-draggers from dominating but the wickets in the Caribbean and USA for a 55-match tournament suggest the teams which can hit it out of the park with most regularity will succeeed.

Often punters will look for bowling skill as the most important ability in deciphering a tournament winner. And although they will probably swerve teams who can't hit the cut strip, it is strike rate, run rate and boundary percentages which catch the eye with surfaces expected to be tacky or sluggish.

On flatter wickets, a crack bowling unit is a great leveller. But bowling sides - with spin possibly important - likely to be brought closer together. So those which bat deep and long may have an advantage.

First, some data. In the inaugural Major League tournament in the states last year, the title was won by the team with the best run rate in the group stage. Three of the last four Caribean Premier League titles have been won by the team with the same profile. England won the 2022 T20 World Cup with the third-best strike rate.

To that end, then, how do the main contenders shape up for batting strike rate in the last 12 months, a more narrow filter because of the uptick in run rates?

Cumulative strike rate last 12 months
Australia 158.7
India 148.7
West Indies 148.5
England 147.7
Pakistan 137.7
South Africa 136.6
Sri Lanka 134.6
New Zealand 132.7
Afghanistan 121

We can start putting red lines through a number of teams on that table. There is a big gap between England, in fourth, to Pakistan in fifth. It is a struggle, then, to consider that teams from Pakistan down are value, although Afghanistan and Sri Lanka are worthy of discussion for an exchange strategy but we'll come to that.

South Africa are a major disappointment. Player availability has been an issue but a cautious mindset or tactic if you will has been a problem in previous ICC tournaments. Their bowling is also the eighth worst from that group on economy. New Zealand, often so reliable, may find this a competition too far and may not make it out of the group.

How to pick a team, then, from Australia, India, West indies or England? Well, the draw is hugely helpful. As is the team-by-team guide for the favourites HERE.

T20 World Cup - how the draw works

Twenty teams have been split into four groups of five. the top two progress. The groups are:

Group A: Canada, India, Ireland, Pakistan, USA
Group B: Australia, England, Namibia, Oman, Scotland
Group C: Afghanistan, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, Uganda, West Indies
Group D: Bangladesh, Nepal, Netherlands, South Africa, Sri Lanka

The ICC, in their wisdom, have decided to do away with the traditional format for deciding which teams go where from the intiial group stage to the Super 8 stage. Instead of two groups of four in the Super 8s being split in the normal manner with finishing position key, this year it will be decided by seeding. That guarantees that, if they qualify (regardless of finishing first or second) the projected Super 8 groups will look like this.

Odds-projected Super 8 Group 1 (seeds first): A1 India, B2 Australia, C1 New Zealand, D2 Sri Lanka
Odds-projected Super 8 Group 2: A2 Pakistan, B1 England, C2 West Indies, D1 South Africa

If a seeded team doesn't progress the unseeded team takes their place. So if India finish third and Ireland are second, Ireland go to Group 1. If Afghanistan pip New Zealand, even if they finish top of the section in Group C, they go to Group 1.

West Indies and Australia best bets

Given the probable importance of strike rate, it should be immediately obvious that West Indies in Super 8 Group 2 have a great chance of making a semi-final by finishing in the top two. There would be a nice symmetry to their success in a home tournament because, arguably, it is they who gave the world the blueprint for six-hitting with title wins in 2010 and 2016.

That power and the importance of knowing what the pitches do (or don't) are big ticks. Also in their favour is improved fielding if recent performances against South Africa are anything to go by.

Of course there are negatives. Andre Russell's fitness is a worry and the Windies may be wise to rest him for games against Papua New Guinea and Uganda. The bowling is also pricey over the last 12 months. We are hopeful that spin ace Gudakesh Motie, who has excellent numbers on economy and strike rate in his eight matches, comes of age.

With their outright price being chipped away down to 8.07/1 on the exchange, the 4/15.00 with Sportsbook that they reach the final may have more appeal.

Their main rivals appear to be Australia. They rank No 1 for batting strike rate and while their bowling group has been expensive, we don't doubt that Pat Cummins and crew take things up a notch when it really counts.

There is no team which trumps the Aussies for sheer will to win and big-tournament temperament. Even poor Australia sides win trophies (see 2021 T20 World Cup). It is very hard to see them fail to make a semi-final, particularly as they have jettisoned Steve smith. It's a sign they recognise what will win the day. We wouldn't be averse to an injury in the batters to get Jake Fraser-McGurk involved, though. The 2.546/4 that they make the final is solid.

As for India, their price at 3.7011/4 on the exchange could hardly be described as wrong. Will Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma hit for the team rather than their average? Maybe. They have damaged their chances of a balanced XI with the sub rule in IPL and their record in tournaments means they are a swerve.

England are at 6.6011/2 to defend their crown. They're not quiet the trendsetters in white-ball anymore and the swagger or confidence under coach Matthew Mott has dissipated. Of course they belt it well and the gamble on pairing Jofra Archer and Mark Wood together is interesting. Pace on for potential slower wickets?

Betfair Exchange outright strategies

If the rationale about those wickets and six hitters is proven to be wrong, then Sri Lanka and Afghanistan are two teams who have the dynamics to take advantage. First off, both are brilliant bowling teams with the potential to field an army of spinners. They are rated at Nos 2 and 1 respectively on the economy lists in the last 12 months.

The pay-off is that they really struggle to hit. Sri Lanka, though, might just buck that trend. In Kamindu Mendis they have a middle-order batter who has the potential to post elite numbers. The 10/34.33 that they win Group D checks out with a flawed South Africa standing in their way.

Alternatively, back them at 70.069/1 on the Exhange with a view to trade. If they make the Super 8s we could see prices in the 20s to back maybe 30.029/1 to lay. Double the original stake on the lay buttton.

There can be no denying Afghanistan's weakness with the bat is not an issue. Crunch matches against New Zealand at providence (where runs have ticked up) and the West Indies at Gros Islet, one of the best batting tracks, is good news for as it should make it easier for their batters to bridge the power gap and ensure their bowling is a point of difference.

They were strong a trade option on the Exchange but the 150.0149/1 has collapsed and they are now at 34.033/1, the sort of price they might be in the last eight. The big numbers may come back so keep an eye out.

Team-by-team guide: Dutch delight incoming HERE

Team-by-team guide: why India glop again HERE

The ultimate betting guide to the T20 WC on Cricket... Only Bettor