T20 World Cup Outright Tips: South Africa can bridge the gap

• South Africa can reach last four
• Favourites all have big problems
• Pakistan might spring surprise

Take on the favourites

It is, alas, human nature for some of us to focus on what can go wrong rather than what can go right. Or the flaws and the foibles in a character or personality rather than the good stuff. Chuck in short odds to the mix at the this T20 World Cup outright is a pessimist's dream.

The front three in the betting all have imperfections. And if you're of the view that bowling economy will be crucial in deciding the winner of the tournament - and that is a admirable quality, by the way - then it is hard not to turn up the nose at Australia, England and India at 4.03/1, 4.1031/10 and 4.904/1 respectively.

As revealed in our team guide, the trio are at Nos 5, 6 and 7 on bowling economy. Australia's go-to man is Pat Cummins, a pacer whose economy is at 9.2 this year, England have lost key bowler Reece Topley and a raft of other first-choice picks while India are without Jasprit Bumrah and have significant death overs concerns.

There are some things to like about the favourites. Australia, the holders, get to the business end of tournaments come hell or high water, England have fercious batting power and India are almost unbeatable in a chase. However, we can hardly claim any of them are value because of those bowling concerns. It just wouldn't be right.

South Africa cut loose

The team which do interest us are South Africa. They are 8.4015/2, the sort of price one would expect for a team which also has potential problems keeping things tight in the field.

This isn't radical thinking. South Africa have been on the radar for some time. The worry with the Saffers has always been whether they can give a talented batting line-up the freedom to cut loose and be aggressive. Boundary percentage - another key metric - in the last 12 months suggest they have finally managed it.

If they pick Reeza Hendricks instead of the disastrously ponderous skipper Temba Bavuma, and it looks like they might after their final warm-up game, they are rated at No 1. Boundary percentage is the filter often used by analysts to decipher the team's with the best chance of making the knockouts

Cumulative boundary % rank for probable top 6 (last 12 months)
1 South Africa
2 India
3 England
4 NZ
5 Pakistand
6 Afghan
7 Sri Lanka
8 Australia
9 Bangladesh

Australia's poor performance is noted and it's another reason as to why they couldn't be considered value. In that context, it is fair to reckon South Africa could be a little closer to the frontrunners in terms of price. Man for man, including the likes of David Miller and Tristan Stubbs in finishing roles, they stack up well.

Another feather in the South African cap is the section they find themselves in. Group 2 has an Asian sub-continental theme with Bangladesh, India and Pakistan their rivals. South Africa could well be better suited to faster and bouncier tracks that Australia offers.

It may be that with historic concerns about South Africa in pressure games, they are a bet at 2.0621/20 to qualify for the semi-finals. They are 4.507/2 to reach the final. Australia, England and India are 2.111/10, 2.305/4 and 2.506/4 respectively for the latter.

The stats pick is probably New Zealand. They do everything well enough - batting, bowling, fielding - to reckon another World Cup knockout beckons.

They are a classic solid rather than spectacular Kiwi outfit. At 13.5025/2 they need only upset one against the Aussies and the English to put them in with a great chance of the last four. From that point of view the price looks chunky.

However, it is a struggle to get on board with them. Kane Williamson is a major issue at No 3, they were disappointing in the tri-series involving Pakistan and a warm-up against South Africa. There's a nagging worry that their impressive run in tournaments could come to a halt.

If there is to be a shock winner, it could well be Pakistan. Again, they have decent numbers in their favour, a returned Shaheen Shah Afridi and, perhaps most importantly of all, No 3 Fakhar Zaman.

Zaman is the crucial pick for Pakistan because he takes pressure off the opening pair of Mohammad Rizwan and Babar Azam, who fear aggression at the top of the order could put a weak middle order in strife. Fakhar solves that. They are 2.206/5 to reach the semis, 4.507/2 for the final and 10.09/1 for the win.

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