Twenty20 World Cup

T20 World Cup Tips Matches 23 & 24: Aussies have big runs chance

Mitchell Starc
Starc has poor returns on top bowler

Ed Hawkins finds the best bets for Sri Lanka v Nepal from Lauderhill and Australia versus Namibia from North Sound on Wednesday...


Sri Lanka v Nepal
Wednesday 12 June, 00:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Sri Lanka v Nepal T20 World Cup match prediction

Sri Lanka have suffered two defeats to South Africa and Bangladesh so they are in the business of big net run rate wins to have hope of qualification. They will be delighted to be away from New York where a dreadful wicket was a leveller.

The match odds market expects them to win easily with Nepal as big as 9.008/1. And it is likely that on a much better batting wicket their bowling aces ensure they avoid further embarrassment. Nepal would have to bat first one suspects for a trade to come off but more than 170 may be needed.

It may all be immaterial. The werather forecast is poor and if they don't complete the match Sri Lanka are out.

Sri Lanka v Nepal T20 World Cup pitch report

Lauderhill has seen eight T20i since 2019. More than 170 has been busted in four first-innings. Four have been won by the chaser so the surface holds well. A 20-over line to bust 189.5 should be within Sri Lanka's grasp. If any overs are lost the bet is void.

Sri Lanka v Nepal T20 World Cup player bets

Kusal Mendis has a return rate of 26% so the 3/14.00 that he wins on the top-bat market for Sri Lanka seems like a good idea. However, it might be smarter to take the same price that he scores a 50 on a flatter wicket. With the ball Nuwan Thushara is returning three in eight making the 7/24.50 from Sportsbook look tasty. In the event of rain ten overs are needed for the bets on the tops to stand.


Australia v Namibia
Wednesday 12 June, 01:30
TV: Live on Sky Sports

Australia v Namibia T20 World Cup match prediction

Australia don't do slip-ups in the big tournaments against even the best so it is hard to call out a shock here. However, we must point out the prospect of the Aussies taking things easy in their final two matches to ensure England are eliminated.

The ICC's decision to seed teams and have Super 8 group destinations preordained could come back to bite them. It doesn't matter where Australia finish in their section as they are guaranteed to go to Group 1, so long as they make the top two.

This gives the Aussies the opportunity to knockout England by making matches, most likely against the Scots, closer than they otherwise would be because their old rivals need to narrow the run rate margin. It would be dumb of Australia not to deliberately keep Scotland keen to send England home as they are bigger title rivals.

It puts the sporting integrity of the tournament into question. Maybe Namibia might trade a bit shorter than 30.029/1 if the Aussies aren't quite at it.

Australia v Nambia T20 World Cup pitch report

Scotland chased Oman's 150 inside 14 overs at North Sound in the first match played there. That suggests it's a good batting wicket. We have no other form guide to go one other than a bunch of women's T20i and regional qualifiers for the men's game. Australia really should threaten 200 here.

Australia v Nambia T20 World Cup player bets

Josh Hazlewood, would you believe, really has little to beat on the top bowler data for Australia at 7/24.50. Hazlewood has a return rate of 25%. His main rivals are Pat Cummins (two wins in 14) and Mitchell Starc (one in 12). For Namibia, Gerhard Erasmus is underrated against at 9/25.50 for top bowler. He wins 45% of the time. Zane Green is value at 17/118.00 on win rate for top bat and he has shown ability so far.


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Ed Hawkins P-L

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