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Possible XIs for favourites
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Best win rates for batters and bowlers
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Batting and bowling rankings
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Shocks on the cards
Group A - India
Winner: 9/43.25
To reach final: 11/102.11
To Win Group: 3/101.30
Batting power rank: 2
Bowling economy rank: 3
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Yadav 30.4%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Arshdeep 20.4%
Squad: Rohit Sharma (c), Hardik Pandya (vc), Yashasvi Jaiswal, Virat Kohli, Suryakumar Yadav, Rishabh Pant (wk), Sanju Samson (wk), Shivam Dube, Ravindra Jadeja, Axar Patel, Kuldeep Yadav, Yuzvendra Chahal, Arshdeep Singh, Jasprit Bumrah, Mohd. Siraj
Possible XI: Rohit, Jaiswal, Kohli, Yadav, Dube, Pant, Hardik, Jadeja, Kuldeep/Axar, Bumrah, Arshdeep
Strength: Chasing with 16 wins from 22 in last two years.
Weakness: IPL impact player rule has cost them all-rounders
Analysis: Betting is about finding wrong prices. Are India really so wrong at 9/43.25 that we just have to get on? Hardly. Their record in ICC tournaments is poor and there is more than a strong suspicion that their key batters, Rohit Sharma and Virat Kohli, aren't the best available. Fifth- and sixth-bowling options are a major concern because they've stopped developing all-rounders in the IPL, too. The good news is that their combined rankings are the best in the tournament. In their projected Super 8s group they need to be in the top two from Australia, New Zealand and Sri Lanka for a semi.
Pakistan
Winner: 10/111.00
To reach final: 4/15.00
To Win Group: 13/53.60
Batting power rank: 5
Bowling economy rank: 5
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Rizwan 44%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Rauf 48%
Squad: Babar Azam (c), Abrar Ahmed, Azam Khan, Fakhar Zaman, Haris Rauf, Iftikhar Ahmed, Imad Wasim, Mohammad Abbas Afridi, Mohammad Amir, Mohammad Rizwan, Naseem Shah, Saim Ayub, Shadab Khan, Shaheen Shah Afridi, Usman Khan
Possible XI: Rizwan, Ayub, Babar, Fakhar, Azam, Shadab, Iftikhar, Imad, Afridi, Amir, Rauf
Strength: Chasing with 16 wins from 22 in last two years.
Weakness: Have lost 15 from last 26 batting first
Analysis: We're not sure Pakistan fit the profile of winners despite making the final last time. They desperately need more batting firepower and in Babar Azam and Mohammad Rizwan they have two who are playing the format of ten years ago. The bowling, as ever, is reliant on magic spells from Shaheen Shah Afridi. That's not to say he won't deliver but it's a burden. As is so often the case, it could come down to selection. Finding room for both Usman Khan and Azam Khan could transform their fortunes. They might hit on that combination until it's too late. A projected Super 8 group sees them face England, West Indies and South Africa when their bowlers will likely come under significant pressure.
Group B - Australia
Winner: 10/34.33
To reach final: 7/52.40
To Win Group: 4/51.80
Batting power rank: 1
Bowling economy rank: 8
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Warner 30%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Hazlewood 27%
Squad: Mitchell Marsh (c), Ashton Agar, Pat Cummins, Tim David, Nathan Ellis, Cameron Green, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis, Glenn Maxwell, Mitchell Starc, Marcus Stoinis, Matthew Wade, David Warner, Adam Zampa
Possible XI: Warner, Head, M Marsh, Green, Maxwell, Inglis, David, Cummins, Starc, Hazlewood, Zampa
Strength: Batting strike rate
Weakness: Bowling economy needs major improvement
Analysis: You just know that Australia will go deep, regardless of whether they're a crack outfit or not. We suspect they're more than solid this time and may even be prepared to overlook horrible bowling economy. Pat Cummins and his fellow bowlers should step up. There is a worry about the form and fitness of the IPL contingent. But then Glenn Maxwell, awful for RCB, was never any great shakes in the competition. A semi berth looks assured.
England
Winner: 5/16.00
To reach final: 15/82.88
To Win Group: 1/12.00
Batting power rank: 4
Bowling economy rank: 6
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Salt 26%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Jordan 28%
Squad: Jos Buttler (c), Moeen Ali, Jofra Archer, Jonathan Bairstow, Harry Brook, Sam Curran, Ben Duckett, Tom Hartley, Will Jacks, Chris Jordan, Liam Livingstone, Adil Rashid, Phil Salt, Reece Topley, Mark Wood
Possible XI: Buttler, Salt, Jacks, Bairstow, Brook, Moeen, Livingstone, S Curran, Rashid, Archer, Topley
Strengths: Unbridled batting aggression
Weaknesses: The white-ball kings have lost confidence under coach Mott
Analysis: It's hard to be wild about England. Few would be surprised if they suffered another white-ball disaster akin to the 50-over World Cup. Hence many punters may have plans in place for the Scots or Namibia causing a shock. Indeed, against Scotland in Bridgetown on a surface which has a bias for the defender, they will be nervous about chasing as it is a burgeoning issue (10 defeats in 18). But in a tournament which could well be about bat aggression, they have no superiors. The return of Jofra Archer gives the bowling a much-needed boost. The champions, if they get up a head of steam, will expect a semi berth as a minimum.
Group C - Afghanistan
Winner: 80/181.00
To reach final: 18/119.00
To Win Group: 11/43.75
Batting power rank: 9
Bowling economy rank: 1
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Ibrahim 21%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Fareed 46%
Squad: Rashid Khan (c), Rahmanullah Gurbaz, Ibrahim Zadran, Azmatullah Omarzai, Najibullah Zadran, Mohammad Ishaq, Mohammad Nabi, Gulbadin Naib, Karim Janat, Nangyal Kharoti, Mujeeb Ur Rahman, Noor Ahmad, Naveen-ul-Haq, Fazalhaq Farooqi, Fareed Ahmad Malik
Possible XI: Gurbaz, Ibrahim, Omarzai, Ishaq, Najibullah, Nabi, Naib, Rashid, Mujeeb, Farooqi, Fareed/Naveen
Strengths: Bowling
Weaknesses: The two-year strike rate of 108 from Ibrahim Zadran
Analysis: If the sages that say the tournament will be decided by the big hitters are wrong, Afghanistan will go deep. This is the best bowling unit in the tournament on economy and they have a spin army ready to wreak havoc led, of course, by Rashid Khan. They will hope for batting-friendly pitches so their strength is accentuated and also bring a timid batting group closer to stronger outfits. Finding a way to score faster runs will be crucial but they should expect to be bang in the mix for qualification to the Super 8s. They could be a great trade on the outright at 150.0149/1.
New Zealand
Winner: 9/110.00
To reach final: 7/24.50
To Win Group: 7/52.40
Batting power rank: 8
Bowling economy rank: 4
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Williamson 26.6%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Bracewell 33.3%
Squad: Kane Williamson (c), Finn Allen, Trent Boult, Michael Bracewell, Mark Chapman, Devon Conway, Lockie Ferguson, Matt Henry, Daryl Mitchell, Jimmy Neesham, Glenn Phillips, Rachin Ravindra, Mitchell Santner, Ish Sodhi, Tim Southee.
Possible XI: Conway, Allen, Williamson, Mitchell, Phillips, Chapman, Neesham/Santner/Bracewell, Southee, Boult, Henry
Strengths: They always make a semi
Weaknesses: They never get over the line
Analysis: With Afghanistan and West Indies first up New Zealand need to start quickly. They could be caught cold, particularly as they seem insistent on persisting with go-slow Kane Williamson at No 3. Indeed, Finn Allen aside, the top four could be too ponderous for the modern way. They also need to find room for Michael Bracewell's canny spin and superb hitting. Otherwise they're over-reliant on fast finishes from Glenn Phillips. The bowling group is experienced but has failed consistently for silverware. Don't be surprised if they don't get out of the group.
West Indies
Winner: 13/27.50
To reach final: 4/15.00
To Win Group: 11/82.38
Batting power rank: 3
Bowling economy rank: 7
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): B King 28.5%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Shepherd 26.3%
Squad: Rovman Powell (c), Alzarri Joseph, Johnson Charles, Roston Chase, Shimron Hetmyer, Jason Holder, Shai Hope, Akeal Hosein, Shamar Joseph, Brandon King, Gudakesh Motie, Nicholas Pooran, Andre Russell, Sherfane Rutherford, Romario Shepherd, Obed McCoy
Possible XI: King, Charles, Pooran, Powell, Rutherford, Russell, Shepherd, Akeal, Alzarri, Motie, Chase/Shamar
Strengths: Local knowledge
Weaknesses: Pricey bowling
Analysis: If West indies can just give a slight uptick with the ball then they are massive runners here. So step forward Gudakesh Motie as the man to make the difference. He has perhaps been underused but his recent numbers suggest he could transform their fortunes. Selection is key. We don't want Shai Hope anywhere near the XI while Shimron Hetmyer should also miss out. Shamar Joseph's T20 record makes him an odd pick. Resting Andre Russell for matches against Papua New Guinea and Uganda would make sense after a heavy IPL.
Group D - South Africa
Winner: 6/17.00
To reach final: 3/14.00
To Win Group: 8/131.61
Batting power rank: 6
Bowling economy rank: 9
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): Hendricks 37.5%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Nortje 28%
Squad: Aiden Markram (c), Ottniel Baartman, Gerald Coetzee, Quinton de Kock, Bjorn Fortuin, Reeza Hendricks, Marco Jansen, Heinrich Klaasen, Keshav Maharaj, David Miller, Anrich Nortje, Kagiso Rabada, Ryan Rickelton, Tabraiz Shamsi, Tristan Stubbs
Possible XI: De Kock, Hendricks, Markram, Klaasen, Miller, Stubbs, Jansen/Shamsi/Fortuin, Maharaj, Coetzee, Rabada, Nortje
Strengths: Heinrich Klaasen
Weaknesses: Bowling, chasing
Analysis: It's not looking for good for South Africa. Those ranking numbers are disappointing, suggesting a mindset which is not carefree. And there are other factors which more than hint they're about right on pricing. Quinton de Kock and Anrich Nortje are either in terminal decline or out of form. Key men Aiden Markram and Marco Jansen were passengers for the Sunrisers IPL charge. Their bowlers often can't hit the strip. Less well-known is a record of five wins in their last 18 chasing. Heinrich Klaasen may have to do some heavy lifting with the bat although do note his two-year win rate on top bat is a lowly 13.5%
Sri Lanka
Winner: 30/131.00
To reach final: 13/114.00
To Win Group: 10/34.33
Batting power rank: 7
Bowling economy rank: 2
Highest top-bat win rate (last 2 years): B King 28.5%
Highest top bowler win rate (last 2 years): Shepherd 26.3%
Squad: Wanindu Hasaranga (c), Charith Asalanka, Kusal Mendis, Pathum Nissanka, Kamindu Mendis, Sadeera Samarawickrama, Angelo Mathews, Dasun Shanaka, Dhananjaya De Silva, Maheesh Theekshana, Dunith Wellalage, Dushmantha Chameera, Nuwan Thushara, Matheesha Pathirana, Dilshan Madushanka
Possible XI: Kusal, Nissanka, Asalanka, Dhananjaya, Mathews, Kamindu, Shanaka, Hasaranga, Thushara, Theekshana, Pathirana
Strengths: Solid bowling
Weaknesses: Flatter to deceive
Analysis: Sri Lanka are similar to Afghanistan insofar as they have a crack bowling unit but a batting group is underwhelming. Unlike the Afghans, however, there is just a chance they could improve to go hit for hit with the big boys. Central to that aim is the emergence of Kamindu Mendis. If Kamindu can do it on the big stage then the route to the Super 8s doesn't look tricky. They would need only to finish in the top two from a group also including Netherlands, Nepal and Bangladesh. They have looked a promising side for the last few years without every really punching on. Now is the time. A possible trade on the exchange outright from 50.049/1.
Now read team-by-team guide Part 1: Dutch delight incoming HERE
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