Ed Hawkins previews Monday's matches from Abu Dhabi in the qualifiers and lines up a surprise result...
"We've been waiting for the chance to talk down Sri Lanka. So here it is. In a highly-competitive Group A they have been overrated for success"
Ireland v Netherlands
Monday 18 October, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Ireland have not impressed in 2021. They've played 11 matches and lost seven and would have been most disappointed not to land a glove on a vulnerable South Africa team.
There is no doubt they have ability. Paul Stirling is their run machine, Curtis Campher is a terrific all-rounder and Harry Tector a great prospect. With the ball left-armer Josh Little can do all sorts while Mark Adair has pace.
The Irish warmed-up nicely with a success over Bangladesh with Gareth Delany strik-ing well. Andrew Balbirnie is fit after an injury scare.
Possible XI Stirling, Balbirnie, Delany Campher, Tector, Dockrell, Rock, Singh, Young, Adair, Little
There nothing mysterious about the Dutch. They have a bunch of well-known domestic and franchise players.
Ryan ten Doeschate is a veteran these days, Paul van Meekeren got a CPL gig, Roelof van der Merwe tried to glue London Spirit together in The Hundred, Fled Klaasen appeared for the Manhester Originals and Australian-born pacer Timm van der Gugten is well-travelled.
Colin Ackermann is their middle-order rock and it would be a surprise if the Dutch don't give a very solid account of themselves.
Probable XI O'Dowd, Myburgh, Cooper, Ackermann, Seelar, Ten Doeschate, de Leede, Edwards, van der Merwe, van Meekeren, van der Gugten,
Abu Dhabi is the venue. In eight games in the recently-concluded IPL there was a 62% bias for the chaser. The average was 159. It had the lowest six per game average in that IPL leg, too, so under ten maximums is one to watch.
The Dutch have won two of the last three on the head-to-head and have dominated historically. We can't see a big reason why Ireland are so short.
The 1.774/5 about Ireland is just no fun at all and that competitive spine for the men in orange makes them a bet at 2.206/5. We'd have this a choice affair.
Some decent prices to avail from Sportsbook. Stirling, who is the second highest runscorer in T20 behind Babar Azam since the last World Cup, has been price-boosted to 5/2. Curtis Campher catches the eye at 8s while George Dockrell could be used in a pinch-hitting role. He's 9/1.
For the Dutch Ben Cooper looks underrated at 11/2. Van der Merwe is one to watch throughout at 19s.
Sri Lanka v Namibia
Monday 18 October, 15:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Sri Lanka a poor side
All you really need to know about Sri Lanka is that they weren't good enough to qualify proper. This isn't some fixture list quirk that has damned them, nor a horrific injury list. They're just a bad side.
They have a smattering of talent. Wanindu Hasaranga is a fantastic player, likewise middle-order hitter Dhananjaya de Silva but the secret has been out on those two for a while.
Sri Lanka have never recovered from the player drain of the greats from ten years ago and this lot will struggle to inspire a new generation.
Possible XI Kusal, Dhananjaya, Nissanka, Asalanka, Chandimal, Shanaka, Hasaranga, Chameera, Karunaratne, Kumara, Akila
Namibia hit and miss
Namibia have lost both their warm-up matches. They gave it a right go against Scotland but against Oman, who they would have fancied to take down, they were desperately disappointing.
Against the Scots their bowlers went round the park but there was fight and intent with the bat. They finished on 184 chasing 203.
In the Oman clash they were chasing 153 but folded to 120-9. They have signed up former South Africa all-rounder David Wiese who is not pulling up trees yet.
Possible XI Baard, Green, Williams, Erasmus, Wiese, Smit, Frylicnk, Loftie-Eaton, Trumpelmann, Scholz, Shikongo
Lay Sri Lanka
We've been waiting for the chance to talk down Sri Lanka. So here it is. In a highly-competitive Group A they have been overrated for success.
They are way too short at 1.3030/100 to win the section (statistical algorithms give them an even money chance). Ireland and the Netherlands can give them a real fright. Even Namibian muscle might squeeze confidence.
In the contest, a 7.6013/2 speculation on Namibia of they get the chance to chase is also a wager because of the toss bias and dew.
Dhananjaya is 9/2 for top Sri Lanka bat. That might be a price considering he opened in a warm-up. For Namibia is the 6/1 about Wiese a wager? Possibly but there's not the talent gulf between him and the rest that his experience suggests.
Simon Doull on the T20 World Cup on Cricket...Only Bettor
Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye column p-l
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