Winless Bangladesh must now face the remainder of the World Cup without Shakib Al Hasan and Matt Harris expects an improving South Africa to take full advantage, with an opening batsman leading the way...
"With skipper Temba Bavuma dropping down to number four, many have accommodated QDK’s return, but the batting unit has better balance as a result."
South Africa v Bangladesh
Tuesday, 10:00 GMT
Live on Sky Sports Cricket
De Kock return gives South Africa balance
Quinton De Kock's unscheduled absence may have inadvertently increased South Africa's chances of making it through to the semi finals. Reeza Hendricks came into the side and subsequently kept his place after making 39 from 30 balls in the win over West Indies.
Game three saw Heinrich Klaasen give way as David Miller showed that he remains one of the best finishers in limited overs formats. With skipper Temba Bavuma dropping down to number four, many have accommodated QDK's return, but the batting unit has better balance as a result.
Kagiso Rabada had a rare off-day with the ball on Saturday but Dwaine Pretorius stepped up in the death overs and there are few concerns in the bowling attack ahead of Tuesday's important encounter.
Wounded Lions playing for pride
Bangladesh are set to wave goodbye to another World Cup having lost three from three in the Super 12s. Low points in this tournament include that defeat to Scotland in the groups and, at the time of writing, they're the only team in this section to lose while chasing.
With the exception of the defeat to England, those losses have been fairly narrow. A 6-run loss to the Scots and a 3-run reverse at the hands of the Windies suggests that they were close to getting over the line.
Perhaps Tamim Iqbal would have made the difference in those games but his absence underlines the lack of quality at the very top of the order. Speaking of absentees, a hamstring problem has ruled Shakib Al Hasan out of the tournament and Bangladesh's last hope is likely to leave with him.
Unhappy hunting ground in Abu Dhabi
Both teams have played one previous game in Abu Dhabi and neither have won on this surface. South Africa opened Group One with a narrow loss to Australia while England subsequently breezed past Bangladesh's total of 124 with almost six overs to spare.
Including matches from Group Two, the Sheikh Zayed Cricket Stadium has produced an average first innings score of 127. Afghanistan made the highest total of 160/5 and successfully defended that target against Namibia.
Despite that result, the trend is to win the toss and look to chase in these conditions.
Match betting shows South Africa way out in the lead at 1.341/3 with a significant gap to Bangladesh who can be claimed at 3.8514/5. A run of three straight defeats and the departure of Shakib are likely to have influenced those figures as opposed to the strength of the South African side right now.
There are concerns in the top order with De Kock and Rassie van der Dussen among those who need a score.
Anyone has a chance in the shortest format and the toss could yet have a bearing on this match. However, Shakib's absence leaves gaping holes in both the batting and bowling units and it's almost impossible to see past the favourites here.
Reeza Hendricks has yet to bring his domestic T20 form into the international team. Overall, he's made three centuries and 29 half centuries in this format while his highest score for South Africa is 74.
Hendricks' average and strike rate also drop when moving up from domestic cricket but he's an impressive batter who will be important in this tournament for a number of reasons.
While Quinton De Kock is a short-priced favourite to top score for South Africa at around 3.412/5, fellow opener Hendricks has an equal opportunity to deliver against a depleted Bangladesh attack and he's my recommended bet at 5.04/1 or possibly better.
When covering Bangladesh's defeat to Sri Lanka earlier in the tournament, I'd suggested backing Mushfiqur Rahim in his side's top batsman market. He didn't quite deliver but made an unbeaten 57 in that match and subsequently top scored in Bangladesh's follow up loss to England.
Despite making consistent profits in this market, his price rarely shortens due to his position in the order and he's going to be a generous option again at around 4.57/2.
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Matt Harris' World Cup P/L
P/L: - 1.12pts
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