Ed Hawkins says the sides are well-matched in Abu Dhabi on Wednesday and the toss is likely to be the biggest factor
"Let's keep our fingers crossed that the flip goes their way and the Namibia bomb squad can detonate Scotland's qualification hopes with a surprise success"
Namibia v Scotland
Wednesday 27 October 15.00
TV: live on Sky Sports
Steady on, Scots
There's no point in the Scots taking defeat by Afghanistan to heart. Somehow they ended up on a Sharjah road and were beaten by the break.
Good luck going at more than nine an over with Rashid Khan and Mujeeb-ur-Rahmann whirling away in tandem. Sure, they will be disappointed that they were rolled for 60, particularly because a wet ball was supposed to help, but they at least tried to bat with intent up front. If they let it get to them a Nambia side will take advantage.
Possible XI Munsey, Coetzer, Cross, Berrington, McLeod, Greaves, Leask, Watt, Davey, Sharif, Wheal
Namibia are ready to throw some punches to give the big boys a bloody nose or two. They will give the ball a biff with the bat but they will likely take plenty of punishment in the field themselves.
It's a blessing that they begin their bid for a shock semi spot against the Scots. It gives them a fantastic chance of a win and the ability to dream. Defeating Scotland's Celtic cousins last time out has highlighted plenty of nous and power with the bat.
Probable XI Williams, Green Erasmus, Wiese, Smit, van Lingen, J Frylinck, P Ya France, JN Loft-ie-Eaton, R Trumpelmann, B Scholtz
There have been five games at the Sheikh Zayed Stadium in this tournament. The first-innings scores (most recent first, 1-2 denote match won by side batting first or second) read: 118-2/171-1/164-2/96-2/106-2.
In the IPL there were eight games with an average total of 159. There was a 62% toss bias.
Namibia chased that 164 against the Dutch so will focus on that instead of being blown away by Sri Lanka for 96. The runs par line is expected to be in the early 150s.
In this World Cup so far 14 out of 17 matches (with two ties) have been won by the side hitting most boundaries. Around 85% of T20 matches are won by the team hitting most boundaries.
With that in mind, how do these two fare in terms of power hitting? Well, Scotland have a boundary percentage of 14% so far, Namibia 11.3%. Does that gap justify the gulf in odds? The Scots are 1.768/11 with Namibia 2.3611/8. Of course not.
Pre-toss this should be much closer to a choice affair in our book. Maybe the Scots should be as skinny if they get the opportunity to chase because, again, there is a significant trend: 11 wins from 17.
But that's mot much fun, eh? Let's keep our fingers crossed that the flip goes their way and the Namibia bomb squad can detonate Scotland's qualification hopes with a surprise success. There's really not a lot between these two.
We discuss the Namibia power in the latest Cricket...Only Bettor (see below). David Wiese leads that three-man unit of hitters, which also includes Gerard Erasmus and JJ Smith. Wiese is boosted to 4s for top bat here and is probably the best player in either team. Smit might be underrated at 13/2.
For Scotland George Munsey finally copped but he only managed to do so with 25 against Afghanistan. We'll swerve the 11/4. Instead we're much more interested in Chris Greaves at 14s. If that's all it takes to win then we'd prefer chunkier prices.
We note the 8/11 that no fifty is scored. It was only a game ago that this market was pitched odds-against so clearly the oddsmakers reckon batting is going to get harder.
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Ed Hawkins P-L
Based only on available prices. Does not include back-to-lay in-running advice or commission rate. Figures 2013-2016 on 1pt level stakes. Includes Hawk-Eye column p-l