India are far too short with such a strong toss bias and it could be that man Kane Williamson doing the bulk of the scoring, says Jamie Pacheco...
"Some people take the view that it’s best to wait for the toss and go with the team batting second. I can obviously see the logic but then again, you can miss out on prices like 3.15 about the Black Caps if they get to chase."
India v New Zealand
Sunday, 15:00 BST
Live on Sky Sports Cricket
India need to make changes
It seems a long time ago now that India played and lost to Pakistan. Not sure what the deal is with the scheduling that Pakistan, South Africa, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have all played three times before India (and New Zealand) get to play their second match.
There are two ways of looking at India's defeat from a batting perspective.
You can take the view that not many teams would have recovered from losing their two openers so early to the brilliance of Shaheen Shah Afridi. Especially when one of them is your best batsman: KL Rahul.
That they got to what they did was a decent effort in the circumstances.
The other view is that the team is wrong to begin with. That Ishan Kishan should be playing at four or five, instead of Hardik Pandya, who can't just be playing as a batsman.
Mohammad Shami paid the price for his expensive spell on...social media. For some reason in an 11-wicket defeat only one man was to blame. And it was him. Go figure.
However, there's some truth to the theory that Bhuvi Kumar is at least one place too high at eight and that Shardul Thakur, fresh from a good IPL, is a better option than Shami or Kumar because it gives them more batting depth.
But I think both will keep their places for this one regardless.
Likely XI: KL Rahul, Sharma, Kohli, Yadav, Kishan, Pant, Jadeja, Kumar, Shami, Chakravarthy, Bumrah.
Milne and Chapman can improve the Black Caps
Same old New Zealand.
A few world-class players like Kane Williamson, Trent Boult and Ish Sodhi find themselves in a side where there are one or two players just not at the same level as the rest. Has always been this way with the Black Caps.
If they're going to progress, it's going to have to be a collective effort where everyone chips in all three disciplines where the whole is greater than the sum of all parts.
Having said that, it may have been quite a different story against Pakistan if Williamson hadn't got out when he did.
There was no 'batting error' from the Kiwi skipper; he just set off for a run and was on the receiving end of some fielding brilliance from Hasan Ali. Of all people.
But they need to find a place for Mark Chapman. In a side where the major problem is a lack of six-hitters, you have to pick the man who hits them more often than anyone else in the squad.
If it were me, I'd drop Tim Seifer, give Glenn Phillips the gloves and pick Chapman.
Adam Milne (an injury replacement for Lockie Ferguson) could come in for Tim Southee.
Likely XI: Mitchell, Guptill, Williamson, Conway, Chapman, Phillips, Neesham, Santner, Milne, Sodhi, Boult.
Ton 60 hard work to post in Dubai
A score of 140-150 seems to what most sides seem to be getting here in Dubai. And time and again, it's not proving to be enough.
All of Pakistan, Australia and South Africa chased down those sorts of scores in the last few days, confirming that at any of the three UAE grounds, whether day or night, chasing is the way to go.
Both sides are quite capable of starting quite quickly but both have a tendency to stall after that with the likes of Williamson and Kohli trying to play the long game in anchoring the innings but not striking at much above 115.
So, if either of them gets off to a fast start, consider laying 160 at odds-on.
New Zealand can 'do a 2016'
Five years ago I tipped New Zealand to beat India at odds of 2.89/5 at the last World Cup. Or more precisely, I tipped a back-to-lay of them. Here's the evidence! Funny how one remembers the winners.
New Zealand won a low-scoring game quite comfortably in the end.
And here we are. Same fixture, similar prices.
I can assure this doesn't have sentimentality attached to it, but I think New Zealand can do them again.
Some people take the view that it's best to wait for the toss and go with the team batting second. I can obviously see the logic but then again, you can miss out on prices like 3.15 about the Black Caps if they get to chase.
On wickets where the toss is so crucial., I just can't see how India can be so short a price against a team who is always so competitive.
Especially after they showed plenty of deficiencies in that first game.
Take a punt on the Kiws at a big price.
Williamson can outscore the field
The nice thing about a match winner market that's 'wrongly' priced up, in my opinion, is that it affects other markets in the sense that they're all so biased towards India.
So, take the top match batsman market. We have Kohli and Rohit Sharma at 9/2, with KL Rahul at 5/1.
But what about Williamson at 13/2? If this proves to be the tricky wicket I think it will, I can't see anyone getting 70 or 80.
So, 50 or 60 could well be enough to win this heat and if that's the case, Williamson looks better suited than most to get that sort of total.
He was looking really good until that run out against Pakistan and isn't the sort to take risks. It won't be quick but a score around 50 could well be enough. He has some good players to beat but this may be just his sort of wicket and match.
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