Ed Hawkins says punters should be aware of how the chase bias impacts other markets ahead of the final in Dubai on Sunday...
"Finch has taken 42 runs off 28 Boult deliveries in T20i. In the franchise game it's 22 off 16. Boult has got him out only once. Finch also has good numbers against Tim Southee"
Australia v New Zealand
Sunday 14 November, 14:00
TV: live on Sky Sports
A winning strategy
The heavy bias for the chaser in Dubai is not the only significant trend which can assist punters in turning a profit. Such is the dominance for the side that bats second that they win significant markets.
Most powerplay runs and most sixes bets can often be a fraught affair. But not at this venue. All you need to do is wait post-toss and then get with the chaser to take the spoils in both.
With one game to go, backing the chaser for most runs in the first six overs has been a winner 75% of the time. Most sixes has been a winner a massive 83%.
All the planets will come into line if Australia bat first. They have showed more intent with the bat than New Zealand this tournament, boasting a boundary percentage of 16.8 and opposed to New Zealand's 13.7.
And the Kiwis are further weakened in this regard with Devon Conway out because of the broken hand he suffered when punching his bat in frustration in the semi-final against England. Tim Seifert, his most likely replacement, is a decent player but New Zealand are four percentage points down on boundary percentage man for man.
Currently Australia are even money for most sixes. We don't expect the market to be impacted by the toss.
Finch a favourite
It should also pay off to wait for the toss before you bet on the top runscorer market. Another startling statistic is that in 10 of the 12 chasers an opener has topped.
For Australia, openers David Warner and Aaron Finch will prove popular at 11/4 and 16/5. Finch may well be the value pick because he has an excellent head-to-head against Kiwi speedster Trent Boult.
The powerhouse has taken 42 runs off 28 Boult deliveries in T20i. In the franchise game it's 22 off 16. Boult has got him out only once. Finch also has good numbers against Tim Southee.
For the Kiwis openers we have a bit of a downer on Martin Guptill and are inclined to short his runs at 21.5 at 10/11 with Sportsbook. That's a winner four out of five if we ignore hits against weak attacks like Scotland and Namibia.
Daryll Mitchell will be a bet for most at 7/2 batting second but we prefer not to chase the money after he won against England.
We also note that nine out of 12 top match bat winners have gone to the batter in the second dig. Finch stands out again at 9/2.
Player of the match bias
Bowlers made a strong start to this World Cup in terms of player of the match awards. But the batsman have struck back to dominate in the denouement. Only five of the last 15 gongs have gone to bowlers.
Nonetheless it has been a refreshing tournament in terms of bowlers getting their dues. Batters can only strike with abandon in a chase, for example, if a bowler has not done the hard yards. Finally that seems to be recognised.
What is interesting about each of those last five awards for the bowlers is that they all came from performances in the first-innings. Is this the dew factor again? A wet ball has made things much trickier for the workhorses.
So if you do fancy a bowler to star here - Boult is 11/1 and Josh Hazlewood a whopper at 18s - then make sure you keep that toss bias (yes, another one!) on your side.
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