Sri Lanka v India Third T20 Tips: Back the hosts to win splash and bash

• Pallekele wicket still good for batters

• Reduced overs contest helps hosts

• Samson given opening role

• Top match bat market an interest

Sri Lanka v India
Tuesday 29 July, 14:30
TV: live on TNT Sports

Sri Lanka v India Second T20 team news

Sri Lanka's idiosyncratic selection doesn't help to bridge the divide. Well set for a big total at 130 for two in the 16th in game one, they fell away badly to 161. This is what happens when you leave out some of your best ball strikers. Bhanuka Rajapksa for one.

There was no Avishka Fernando again and one can only assume he is injured otherwise leaving out one of their best talents is very odd. Mind you, Dislahn Madushanka, a pacer with excellent numbers, was also missing in a tactical change.

His spot went to spinner Ramesh Mendis. In a reduced-over contest he didn't even bowl. Instead of fearing India's batters with seven bowling options they need to focus on their own batting. Avishka and Chandimal would be good options

Possible XI: Nissanka, Mendis, Perera, Avishka, Asalanka, Hasaranga, Shanaka, Ramesh, Theekshana, Madushanka, Pathirana, Asitha

India picked two frontline pacers for game two with back-up provided by Hardik Pandya. Axar Patel, Ravi Bishnoi and Riyan Parag were the spin options.

With the series won they could find room for those who have been on the bench. Shivam Dube could get a game while Khaleel Ahmed could take one of the pacer's spots.

Sanju Samson came into open in place of Shubman Gill but returned a duck. If they persist with Samson, Yas Jaiswal may step out with Gill returning. Washington Sundar for Axar is another potential change.

Possible XI: Samson, Gill, Yadav, Pant, Rinku, Dube, Hardik, Parag, Sundar, Arshdeep, Khaleel

Sri Lanka v India Third T20 pitch report

Pallekele is a good batting surface and Sri Lanka were below par last time. More than 178.5 has been busted in six of the last seven matches. We're wary of relying on the home batting again so will filter accordingly to the toss. Paying evens for late 190s for India on the 20-over par line is a possibility.

A reminder that without Virat Kohli and Rohit Sharma they have an average run rate of approaching 9.5 and have busted more than 200 eight times batting first out of 19 and more than 180 12 times.

The weather forecast is an issue. Rain is expected and we could get a reduction in overs. The 20-over par line does exactly what it says on the tin so bets are void if any overs are lost. Use those India run rate batting numbers for sums when any reduction is known.

Sri Lanka v India Second T20 match prediction

Sri Lanka are 3.45 despite only having two wins in their last nine meetings against India. In the two matches this series they have managed to get a foothold, batting second and then first, but a lack of batting depth has cost them each time.

India could well take their foot off the gas subconciosuly because it is a dead rubber but there has to be some sort of rational approach to selecting an XI from the hosts. Surely at least two from Avishka, Chandimal and Madushanka need to be in the XI with the prospect of rain. You just don't need seven bowling options in that scenario.

The weather forecast could help, though. In a splash and bash, and Sri Lanka's record of being strong up front with the bat, they are worth a small risk.

Sri Lanka v India Second T20 Exchange strategy

There is a blueprint for a trade on Sri Lanka because their top order, at least, has fired. In game one they were up with the rate in a stiff chase. And as mentioned they should really have gone on to post close to 190 in the second contest.

We need Sri lanka to get first use with the bat on the surface. And from a starting point of 3.45 they have the potential to be cut to 2.206/5. Add 50% of the original stake to the lay button.

Sri Lanka v India Third T20 player bets

If we do lose overs then opening bats are to the fore. So Indians on the top match batter markets with Sportsbook are of interest.

Samson is 4/15.00, Jaiswal 9/25.50 and Gill 11/26.50. The latter could bappeal to us if he returns to the XI. For Sri Lanka, Matheesha Pathirana at 16/54.20 for top bowler looks toppy.

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