Seattle Orcas v Texas Super Kings MLC Tips: Batting first a boost

• Toss bias crucial

• Teams closely matched

• Sams could be promoted

Seattle Orcas v Texas Super Kings
Friday 28 July, 01:30
TV: Live on BT Sport

Seattle Orcas team news

Orcas topped the ladder in regular season winning four out of five matches. Still, defeat by the chaotic LA Knight Riders was a concern. It makes one wonder whether they're the real deal or not.

A thrilling Heinrich Klaasen ton took out MI New York in their previous outing. Fellow South African Dwaine Pretorius had been added to the XI for skip Wayne Parnell so it will be interesting to see if the latter has a fitness issue.

Possible XI: De Kock, Anwar, Jayasuriya, Klaasen, Ranjane, Shanaka, Pretorius, Imad, Harmeet, Tye Gannon

Texas Super Kings team news

Super Kings were indebted to a blitz from Daniel Sams to get them finishing second in the league with a win over Unicorns. Like Seattle they could afford to lose this and still qualify for the final as a result. The loser of this one meets the winner of New York v Freedom.

There are issues for Texas, though. Chiefly Faf Du Plessis' awful form. Du Plessis got a duck and is average seven in the tournament. Promoting Sams to open and brining in Dwayne Bravo may be worth it.

Possible XI: Sams, Conway, Chetty, Kumar, Miller, Santner, Bravo, Savage, Coetzee, Mohsin, Theron

Grand Prairie Stadium pitch report

We are back to the Grand Prairie Stadium for the play-offs where a burgeoning toss bias awaits. In the eight league matches played in the first leg of the tournament, seven were won by the side batting first. As for first-innings scores, 160 or more was busted five times. MI New York managed only 141 against Washington in the eliminator earlier making it five 160+ from nine. It would appear 160 is a minimum and that can inform the par line.

Seattle Orcas v Texas Super Kings match odds

There's little to chose between these teams. Orcas have a skinny advantage thanks to their more powerful batting but it's not much to get excited about.

They average 8.6 runs per over with the bat and 7.8 with the ball. Texas go 7.9 and 7.4 respectively. Their canny bowling, particularly if they bring Bravo back, could be a significant factor. Seattle have hit one more six.

Just as well there is a toss bias, then. We would be very surprised if the advantage from the flip didn't hold in the play-offs and it provides a clear route to value.

The match odds market can't split the pair. We expect the side batting first to shorted to around 1.804/5.

Seattle Orcas v Texas Super Kings player bets

Devon Conway has been boosted to 12/53.40 for top Texas bat. Sams is 16/117.00 Heinrick Klaasen is 13/53.60 jolly for Seattle. The South African is also 11/26.50 with Sportsbook for top match bat. Given Klaasen's dominance, Quinton De Kock looks toppy at 10/34.33 for an opener of his calibre. Sams is