Twenty20

Saturday's SAT20 Tips: Back 9/2 and 8/1 top-bat bets with hitters in win zone

Heinrich Klaasen
Klaasen is value at 8/1 on Saturday

Ed Hawkins previews Sunrisers Eastern Cape v Paarl Royals and Joburg Super Kings v Durban Super Giants and recommends three bets...


Sunrisers Eastern Cape v Paarl Royals
Saturday 1 February, 11:00
TV: live on Sky Sports

Sunrisers Eastern Cape v Paarl Royals SAT20 tips

This is a dead rubber for Royals, who have already qualified for the top two. And they have squad churn too with Joe Root moving on to prepare for England's ODI tour of India and David Miller struggling with a groin injury.

Paarl have moved quickly to replace Root. Mitch Owen, who produced a stunning century to win the Big Bash for Hobart, has signed as his replacement. Root has had a superb season, scoring 279 runs at 140, suggesting he does have what it takes to shine in the format if a team gets him in early enough.

Sunrisers have been shambolic in their last two matches, losing by 10 wickets to MI Cape Town and nine wickets to Joburg Super Kings. They may miss out on a play-off spot yet. Pretoria Capitals could still pip them for fourth even if they were to win this game. Two wins, including one with a bonus point, would be enough to squeeze in on net run rate.

The match odds are a little strange even for an immature market. Sunrisers are shaping up to be skinny favourites. Maybe the market is factoring in the absence of Root, the fact Paarl don't need to win and home advantage for Sunrisers. But it is rare that it is as cute as that.

Sunrisers' form in Port Elizabeth is certainly a factor. They do appear to be a one-trick pony. So long as they can get on their tacky, sluggish surface at home and then post a 160 they appear to be fine.

In day matches at St George's Park there is no toss bias. Twenty-two from 41 have been won by the chaser. And there is a little to choose between run rates in the first and second-innings with 7.43 versus 7.57.

Those numbers suggest a first-innings runs short is the way to go. Scores of 174 and 165 in two of the games this term suggest we may get some sugar on the runs markets.  But we will caveat with Sunrisers needing to bat first. Their run rate is 6.7 this term while they come up against a team which is conceding at eight. Laying 165 or more at 2.1011/10 is a starting point.

Owen gets a 7/24.50 quote for top Paarl bat. It will be a test for his style on a slow surface. Strokemakers can struggle hence Zak Crawley being dropped by the hosts. Under 17.5 runs has appeal for Owen at 5/61.84. We wouldn't be surprised to see pace off and Owen mistiming a yahoo to hole out. 


Joburg Super Kings v Durban Super Giants
Saturday 1 February, 15:30
TV: live on Sky Sports

Joburg Super Kings v Durban Super Giants SAT20 tips

Joburg Super Kings, like Sunrisers, could still miss out on a play-off with the same mathematical equation. They have the same number of points and wins and will hope for Capitals to slip up.

They really should get a win here. And a bonus point win, to take them to 24 points, should be a target. They would be incredibly unlucky to miss out from there even if Capitals do boast a better run rate.  A win over Paarl last time should give them immense confidence, particularly as they are now selecting the right team. Leus du Plooy's return to the team is the right call. 

The early match odds show have Joburg lined as skeletal favourites. It makes sense when one considers Durban's record of six defeats in seven. We have said before in these pages that their selection of Kane Williamson has killed a freescoring team.

There is a slight toss bias in day-night games at Wanderers which may aid Durban bridging the gap. Twelve of the last 20 have been won by the chaser but the run rate in first-innings in the study period (four years) is higher.

Marcus Stoinis must be a major doubt for Durban after he was injured against Paarl. That opens up a value bet on Heinrich Klaasen at 8/19.00 for top bat. He should at least bat a place higher at No 5. The hitter managed 29 from 17 against Joburg on January 14 so he has a liking for this attack.

We also go back in on Du Plooy. he has one win this season and a second would still be below his expected win rate (likewise Klaasen by the way). Sportsbook have pushed him out to 9/25.50.

Du plooy won on the head-to-head earlier this term.


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