SAT20 Winner: Back Sunrisers at 9/2 in market that offers wrong prices galore

• Sunrisers value for third successive SAT20 title

• MI Cape Town & Pretoria too short

• Durban underrated on the Exchange

• Read the team-by-team guide here

A test of a golden betting rule

The SAT20 outright market represents as stiff a mental challenge as any cricket gambler is likely to face in 2025. It promises to test freshly-inked resolutions to only bet wrong odds, to banish prejudice and only ever treat a price, player or team on merit. We do wish you the very best of luck.

That is because the odds on offer from Sportsbook are laced with wrong prices, for good and for bad. A strong case can be made that the two favourites should be anything but while the joint-fourth favourites should be considerably shorter.

And it is that team with whom we must begin our analysis. Sunrisers Eastern Cape have won both editions of this competition. They have won 15 out of 22 matches. They boast the most economical bowling unit by more than half a run on two-year data.

They are a settled, astute squad well-led by Aiden Markram. They are by the far the best team. And yet they are rated at 9/25.50, the same price as Joburg Super Kings, who did not make it out of the play-offs last term. Betfair Sportsbook think there are three better teams than Sunrisers.

Sunrisers can win unprecedented hat-trick

At this point it is worth saying don't waste your time trying to uncover some obscure fact (or fiction) as to why this might be. The price seems to be predicated on the assumption that Sunrisers cannot possibly win three straight titles.

It is not an assumption without historical credit. After all, the number of teams which have won three-in-a-row in the main franchise leagues stands at a big fat zero. Perth Scorchers have won three in four, likewise Trinbago Knight Riders and Mumbai Indians. So if those storied powerhouses couldn't do it, why can Sunrisers?

This question, however, goes to the heart of what it is to be a gambler. Many will not back Sunrisers for the very reason that three times is not a charm. Franchise leagues are hard to win and the aim of almost every coach, analyst and strategist ahead of a new season is to finish in the top two of the ladder to give themselves the best chance of a final.

Sunrisers' market status is a scandal

It is a widely-held belief that at the business end of tournaments, the knockouts, bad things happen to good teams. Plenty have been denied glory off the back of a coin flip or rain interupttion or injury crisis.

Yet punters should, ultimately, consider each price in isolation. For example, when talking about laying off or hedging the golden rule is to only really consider doing so not because you're panicked about your winnings but, in the cold and hard light of day that the bet, at that point, is a bad one. Or to put it another way, if you hadn't taken the bet you would be wagering for the opposite to happen.

The point is that Sunrisers' prospects are not influenced in the least by the fact that Mumbai were going for a third-straight IPl in 2021 and finsihed fifth. It is completely irrelevant. Likewise Perth losing a semi-final in 2016 or Trinbago finishing third in 2019.

A wrong price is a wrong price and there is no justification for Sunrisers being rated behind three teams and on a par with a fourth. Given their dominance it is something of a scandal that they are not favourites. Sunrisers are at least rated third favs on the Exchange.

MICT eye bottom to top surge

The two other wrong prices at the head of affairs are Mumbai Indians Cape Town and Pretoria Capitals. Both are ricks which strengthen the case for Sunrisers.

Cape Town are 16/54.20 favourites. And we aboslutely get why. They are the the most famous, fashionable and glitzy global franchise. They also boast some dangerous, game-changing players such as opening bat Ryan Rickleton (pictured below) and Rashid Khan. However, they have finished bottom in both editions.

It requires a major improvement to go from bottom-feeders to top-table revellers. They must also do it in a state of flux because Kieron Pollard, last year's captain, has departed, and there has been consistency in inconsistency. MICT have failed to give players confidence by picking an XI and sticking with it or clearly defining individual roles. They have a hell of a lot to learn and no time to do it.

Pretoria are 10/34.33 and are taken to struggle. Their best chance of success was probably last season but they suffered a desperately disappointing campaign. They finished fifth but won only three times (the same number as MICT). Phil Salt and Adil Rashid have departed while marquee signing Liam Livingstone may only be available for the first five games before leaving for England's white-ball tour of India.

Pretoria's position as second favourites brings us to the fourth incorrectly-priced team in this column's opinion, and the secoind to the benefit of the punter. Durban Super Giants are 7/24.50 with Sportsbook and even better at 9/25.50 on the Exchange.

They were the beaten finalists last season having matched Sunrisers win for win the league season. In the close season they have done some potentially good things, like the signing of Chris Woakes to help make their bowling group meaner. This would seem essential to success.

But they've done some dumb things, too. Why the hell would the No 1-ranked team for batting power waste an overseas spot on human snail Kane Williamson? That rings alarm bells and is a further nduge to stick with Sunrisers at the 9/25.50.

Finally, congratulations to Paarl Royals, the only correctly priced team out of the six. We expect them to to wallow as revealed in our team-by-team analysis.

Read more cricket previews and get Ed Hawkins' tips here