New Zealand v Pakistan Third T20 Tips: Kiwi batters eye big runs chance

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New Zealand v Pakistan Third T20 team news

New Zealand have a 2-0 lead following the win at University Oval, Dunedin. Jacob Duffy claimed the man of the match in a rain-reduced contest for mean and potent bowling.

The hosts had made a couple of changes to their XI from game one. Batter Tim Robinson came out for Jimmy Neesham's all-round ability. Kyle Jamieson, man of the match in the first, was replaced by Ben Sears.

Matt Henry is listed as being available from game three but we would be surprised if he featured following a shoulder injury. Will O'Rourke, in the original squad, is not named. It's possible that the Kiwis are rotating their pacers so Duffy could come out for Jamieson.

Probable NZ XI: Allen, Seifert, Robinson/Neesham, Mitchell, Chapman, Hay, Bracewell, Foulkes, Jamieson, Sodhi, Sears

Pakistan were much better with the bat at least in Dunedin. In a 15-over thrash they set a challenging target of 136. This despite failures from their openers again. Mohammad Haris and Hasan Nawaz must surely be replaced this time by Usman Khan and Omair Yousuf.

That the contest wasn't even close will infurtiate Pakistan because of the experience they boasted with the ball. Shaheen Afridi went for ten an over and Mohammad Ali 17. Haris Rauf at least showed some control. Abbas Afridi is likely to come in for one of those two. Spinner Abrar Ahmed is also an option as they seek a point of difference.

Possible Pakistan XI: Usman, Omair, Irfan, Salman, Shadab, Khusdhil, Samad, Rauf, Abbas, Ali, Abrar

New Zealand v Pakistan Third T20 pitch report

Ten of 17 night matches at Eden Park have been won by the team batting second. We expect a true, flat surface which holds. The run rate with that filter is more than nine an over. There have been only three night games in the last four years but one of those was the Kiwi-Pakistan clash in 2024. The hosts posted 226 for a cosy win. In 2018 there was a runfest when Australia got up to chase 243.

The focus, rightly, will be on how many New Zealand can get if they were to bat first because they are far more reliable and settled. A par line settled in the mid 180s has the feel of a buy. Given the hitting mood from game two, over New Zealand runs in the first six overs at 52.5 at 4/51.80 is another option. No rain is forecast. 

New Zealand v Pakistan Third T20 match prediction

New Zealand are 1.3130/100 with Pakistan 4.1031/10. The first thing to say about those odds is that the visitors should get bigger before the toss. And they almost certainly will if they have to bowl first.

Pakistan had drifted to a shade under 5.04/1 for game two without the flip so we would expect similar movement. And that was a contest which gave them assistance through conditions. Little help appears to be available here.

A flat surface is unlikely to help them bridge the gap. Their batting is inexperienced and unsettled. It is asking a lot from that sort of line-up to go hell for leather from ball one. Still, the surface may be good enough to get their starting odds down but even with 180 on the board the hosts will remain hot favourites. Any sort of drift to 1.705/7 would warrant a wager.

If they have to chase would expect them to be looking at a stiff target. More than 200 is very much on the cards and if so New Zealand would have shortened considerably. 

New Zealand v Pakistan Third T20 player bets

Mark Chapman was a strong fancy for top bat for the Kiwis in this series in individual markets. But we're losing faith. Not that it's his fault. His win rate is down to 21% and although six of his eight wins have come against Pakistan, the price and his position in the batting order aren't quite right. Sportsbook go 4/15.00 and he could well be in the middle order. True he was in at No 3 last time but that was a promotion for quick runs in a splash and thrash. Besides, on flat surfaces we often prefer milestone bets so the 3/14.00 he scores a fifty might have more appeal. 

With the ball, Rauf is often a go-to option. We like to wait and have look that he's on the money. He certainly looked the business in Dunedin taking top bowler honours. There should be a gap between him and Afridi so the 3/14.00 has appeal. 

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