New Zealand v Pakistan Fourth T20 Tips: Pakistan right back in it

Listen to Cricket...Only Bettor IPL Preview Part 1: the bottom 5

New Zealand v Pakistan
Sunday 23 March, 06:15
TV: live on TNT

New Zealand v Pakistan Fourth T20 team news

New Zealand have confirmed that Matt Henry will play no part in the series. Henry had been named in the original squad for the last few matches but he continues his recovery from a shoulder injury.

Will O'Rourke, yet to play, now seems certain to come back to bolster the hosts. Kyle Jamieson has been rested. Jimmy Neesham probaly plays as an extra all-rounder. Mark Chapman looks to have confirmed the No 3 slot as his own.

Probable NZ XI: Allen, Seifert, Chapman, Mitchell, Neesham, Hay, Bracewell, Foulkes, Sodhi, O'Rourke, Sears

Pakistan should be credited for showing faith and patience in opener Hasan Nawaz. He had started the series with two ducks and then blazed 105 from 45 balls to give Pakistan a lifeline in the contest. It was some turnaround.

There were also fast runs for opening partner Mohammad Haris, who hit 41 from 20. As a result Pakistan are likely to go again with at least the same batting line-up. 

Spinner Abrar Ahmed was far too expensive, though, conceding 14 an over in game three, and he may come under pressure for his spot from Sufiyan Muqeem, fellow tweaker.

Possible Pakistan XI: Haris, Nawaz, Salman, Irfan, Shadab, Khusdhil, Samad, Khusdil, Rauf, Abbas, Abrar/Muqeem

New Zealand v Pakistan Fourth T20 pitch report

Nine from 15 night matches at Mount Manganui have been won by the side batting first. The trend extends to four of the last six. There's a drop in run rate from 8.17 to 7.16 batting first to second. 

But we don't rule out sizeable runs. More than 170 has been busted in four of those matches. New Zealand posted 186 to beat Sri Lanka at the venue last year. The runs line for overs in an early show is 184.5. That is likely to come down if Pakistan bat first to about 180. No rain is forecast.

New Zealand v Pakistan Fourth T20 match prediction

New Zealand are out to 1.4640/85 from 1.3130/100 from game three. Pakistan are now into 3.002/1 having threatened 5.04/1 in other matches. Hasan's assault has changed the complexion of the contest.

Still, Pakistan must win. Defeat will hand New Zealand the series. The gulf that the odds suggest probably doesn't exist, particularly with a burgeoning toss bias in play.

Pakistan would rate a fair wager batting first. For those not sold on letting it run, a trade into favourite status may be the most sensible option. The likes of Shaeen Afridi and Haris Rauf are dangerous in potential helpful conditions bowling second. 

New Zealand v Pakistan Fourth T20 player bets

We missed out on Mark Chapman winning for the Kiwis last time having trailed the bet consistently. But the price wasn't quite right because we just didn't know where he was going to bat. Them's the breaks. Another option here is Mitchell Hay in the middle order.  He whacked 41 off 19 in that Sri Lanka contest and may have appeal for top bat at 10/111.00.  It is also worth pointing out the destructive power of Abdul Samad lower down for Pakistan. He could become a class finisher at this level in time. He is 14/115.00. 

Listen to Cricket...Only Bettor IPL Preview Part II: the contenders

Now read more Cricket tips and previews here!