Ed Hawkins finds a runs bet for game one in Lahore and takes on twin bets at 7/2 on a batter and bowler on Saturday...
Lahore Qalandars v Islamabad United
Saturday 17 February, 14.30
TV: Live on Sky734
Lahore Qalandars v Islamabad United team news
Lahore are eyeing a third-successive title. But they will have to do it without Rashid Khan. They will also be without Sikandar Raza for the opener who is competing in the ILT20 final. Rassie van der Dussen is only available until March 6.
Possible XI: Fakhar, Shafique, Hope, van der Dussen, Rajapaksa, Baig, Wiese, Ghulam, Rauf, Afridi, Zaman
Islamabad United could be boosted by Desert Vipers' failure to make the play-offs for the ILT20. Alex Hales and Colin Munro may be available from the start. Shadab Khan and Imad Wasim give the XI terrific balance. Naseem Shah's return to fitness is a boost.
Possible XI: Hales, Munro, Shadab, Salman, Azam, Haider, Imad, Faheem, Naseem, Mills/McCoy, Raees
Lahore Qalandars v Islamabad United pitch report
More than 170 has been busted 18 times in the last 28 first-innings in Lahore. There is a bias on the toss with 19 of those matches won by the side batting first. As one would expect for scoreboard pressure. It may be possible to play overs on the first-innings runs line at around the 1.834/5 mark for 170 or more.
Lahore are 1.9210/11 favourites so one would expect Islamabad to settle at around the 2.1011/10 mark.
Man for man United match up well. They may even have the edge given availability issues for the hosts.
What will be crucial to whether we bet on them is the flip. United have to bat first. We don't expect a surge on the market if they do, either.
There are some decent top-bat options. First up, Fakhar Zaman has dominated for Lahore on this market winning 35% of the time in the last two years. Sportsbook have boosted him to 7/24.50 so we have to play. For United, Colin Munro has been winning 28% of the time but we may have to consider bigger prices than 10/34.33.
Shadab Khan has 15% hit rate and at 9/110.00 could bat as high as No 3. it will probably be his call because he is skipper. Imad Wasim is 6/17.00 and has a two-year win rate of 26%. But we're not sure he will bat as high as his usual No 5 slot for his new franchise. It's quite a congested field this with Azam Khan also in the mix at 7/24.50. We will side with Shadab for most wickets for United (30% win rate) at an excellent 7/24.50.
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