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Ind-Pak a betting blockbuster
- Dubai pitch favours chaser
- Pakistan need to forget the rows
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Tilak and Hardik catch eye
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Hasan & Rauf for Pakistan
India v Pakistan
Sunday 21 September, 15.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
India v Pakistan Asia Cup T20 team news
India have, finally, got a sweat on in this competition. UAE were thrashed, Pakistan likewise and Oman looked merely a small irritation. But not so.
Oman gave them a good game. India were restricted to 188 and although Oman were never up with the rate, at 149 for one in the 17th, India were far from happy.
Jasprit Bumrah and Varun Chakratharty, the spinner, were rested in that match for Arshdeep Singh and Harshit Rana. Bumrah looks certain to return but the form of Kuldeep Yadav has reduced Varun's importance.
The need for crease time meant that India changed their batting order against Oman. Expect Tilkak Varma to come back into the top four.
Probable India XI: Abhishek, Gill, Sky, Tilak, Samson, Hardik, Dube, Axar, Kuldeep, Bumrah, Arshdeep
Pakistan have been too busy having diplomatic rows and railing against ICC after the India players refused handshakes in the first meeting between the sides. Sure, India's actions were petty but Pakistan have allowed the issue to wholly detract from business.
They only agreed to play minutes before UAE and almost came a cropper. Are their players truly focussed on the match? Lots will argue that Pakistan's players will be so 'up for it' after the snub that they will produce something special. Maybe it's true with this lot but we just don't believe elite sport works like that.
In that UAE game Sufiyan Muqeem and Faheem Asharaf came out for Haris Rauf and Khushdil Shah. Mohammad Haris also played as a finisher. We expect him to return to No 3.
Possible Pakistan XI: Farhan, Ayub, Haris, Zaman, Salman, Hasan, Nawaz/Rauf, Faheem, Afridi, Muqeem, Abrar
India v Pakistan Asia Cup T20 pitch report
In the last ten T20i in Dubai the average first-innings score is 144. Seven of those have been won by the side batting first. But three from the five in this competition have been won by the chaser. And that is line with the 30-game trend of a bias of the chaser to dominate. Just 36.7% of matches have been won by the team batting first.
Pakistan's inadequacies could be exposed again by India if they bat first. Their runs line is one for the shorters after they managed just 127 on this ground, barely playing a shot in ager. Extreme unders are cheap lays at 120 and 130.
India v Pakistan T20 match prediction
That India dominance is reflected in the odds. They are no better than 1.261/4. For the first meeting these pages were keen on Pakistan and it could be argued that with that long study of a toss bias in their favour, they could at least get a foothold in this game for a trade from as high as 4.707/2.
As stated, Pakistan have allowed themselves to become distracted by off-the-field antics. If only they would focus and concentrate on themselves instead of what others are doing, regardless of the rights and wrongs of the situation.
By the letter of the value law, though, a small nibble on Pakistan has to be worth it if they are batting second. By the same token, as punters we must also focus on the game rather than the noise. And Pakistan have plenty of gamechangers to get a run for our money with the toss caveat.
Alternatively the Pakistan bet can be traded. At the odds we don't need odds-on favourite status and would take a choice affair. There should be huge liquidity for what is one of the betting blockbusters.
Back Pakistan bat 2nd
India v Pakistan Asia Cup player bets
Tilak Varma and Hardik Pandya both appear to be value wagers for top India bat. Tilak is out to 8s after he was held back against UAE while HP has the sauce in terms of win-rate value, dipping under 18%. Hardik is available at 10s.
For Pakistan the hitting prowess of Hasan Nawaz means he is eyecatching at big numbers like 9s. With the ball, Haris Rauf returned to the side is good news for top bowler bettors. He is pretty consistent and the 16/54.20 is a touch too big. He more than matches the fav Shaheen Afridi.