Friday's ILT20 and SAT20 Tips: Dubai nights give betting lesson

• Toss bias helps Giants bridge the gap

• 68% of matches in Dubai at night won by chaser

• Emirates too short pre-toss

• Pretoria Capitals need a win

• Sixes and runs could go high

• Our Cheltenham offer is live! Get a completely free bet every weekend until the Festival

Cricket Superboost

Both India and England have busted 50 runs in the first six overs of their last two T20 matches, so whoever bats first in Friday's fourth T20, you've got a powerful batting team on your side in the hope they score at least 50 runs in the first six overs of the game.

And the reason we mention that is because the Betfair Sportsbook have super-boosted the price for whoever bats first to score 50 runs in the first six overs from 4/61.67 to 1/12.00. Just click on the odds in the below banner to go to the Sportsbook market.

Gulf Giants v MI Emirates
Friday 31 January, 14:30
TV: live on Zee

Gulf Giants v MI Emirates ILT20 tips

This game could well be useful as a study as to what is, or isn't, value when it comes to cricket betting. MI Emirates are set up to go off at least 1.608/13 favourites for the night contest in Dubai.

We accept that a MI franchise is often going to be shorter in the betting. That's just because of the 'name'. There is no substance behind it, of course. In the ILT20 we are on our third edition so there has been no chance for legacy. MI Emirates are the holders of this competition. MI New York won the US version. That's it for the offshoots. 

With a more acute context, the odds make little sense. Emirates are higher up the table, sure. But they have only two more points than Giants and one more win. Are they the better side? Well, yes. The net run rate gap tells us that but we also know that the better side doesn't always win in this competition. That's because of the importance of the tosss.

And this is where we need to be strict and question those Emirates odds. In 41 of the last 60 night games in Dubai the game has been won by the side batting second. That's a bias of 68%. The bias in the tournament as a whole is 63%. Seven of Giants' eight matches have been won by the chaser, including a victory for them over Emirates. 

When there is such a leveller in play, one cannot possible justify backing such short odds-on favourites. No matter who they are. We should be clear: we are not saying Emirates are a poor team. We are not saying Giants are a good team. But there is a stack of evidence which suggests the prices are wrong.

And the crazy thing is we don't expect much of a shift if Giants bat second.

Pretoria Capitals v MI Cape Town
Friday 31 January, 15:30
TV: live on Sky Sports

Pretoria Capitals v MI Cape Town s SAT20 tips

Pretoria Capitals are battling to squeeze into the play-off berths. MI Cape Town, in hammering Sunrisers Eastern Cape, confirmed a top-two finish to give themselves two chances to make the final.

Capitals snapped a three-game losing sequence against the Joburg Super Kings when they ran through their opponents' batting with ease. Joburg posted 99 giving Pretoria a bonus-point win. They have been bolstered by arrivals from the Big Bash in Ashton Turner and Tom Rogers, the bowling all-rounder from Renegades.

This is the first of a double header for the pair as they finish the ladder season. And it could be another case of finding value on the flip of the coin. Nine from 13 in Centurion day-night matches have been won by the team batting first, suggestng seam and swing under lights. The gap between run rates for the first- and second-innings in our study period is massive at 9.65 and 8.54 respectively.

That first figure suggests we should be giving careful consideration to going over a par line which could be set low 170s for the hosts or late 170s for the visitors. With Cape Town scoring at bang on nine an over it is a fair option. Don't go mad on stakes, though, because Pretoria have at least been mean with the ball. Pretoria might not be worth a similar risk with the bat. Trent Boult and Kagiso Rabada are dangerous with the new ball. 

There is a possible overs play on sixes at 15.5 with Sportsbook at even money. That has won six times in the study period mentioned above. 

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