Desert Vipers v Dubai Capitals ILT20 Final: Billings just the ticket at 7/1

Desert Vipers v Dubai Capitals
Sunday 9 February, 14:00
TV: live on Zee

Desert Vipers v Dubai Capitals ILT20 team news

Vipers made the final after beating Sharjah on Friday in a chase against Warriors. It was an excellent effort with the ball becaue they are without Wanindu Hasaranga and Lockie Ferguson. Hasaranga has been recalled by Sri Lanka and Ferguson has an injury. They are the mainstays of their attack. Crucially UAE player Khuzaima Tanveer stepped up taking two wickets. David Payne likewise with two for 28.

Probable Vipers XI: Gurbaz, Hales, Holden, Lawrence, S Curran, Rutherford (sub: Sowter), Azam Khan, Payne, Naseer, Tanveer, Amir

Capitals are sweating on the fitness of David Warner. He has a back injury and missed the last two games, both against Vipers. Adam Rossington, in his absence, has been a more than able deputy but unless they drop one from Sikandar Raza, Rovman Powell or Dasun Shanaka he will not keep his place.

Probable Capitals XI: Warner, Hope, Naib, Billings, Raza, Shanaka, Powell, Chameera, Farhan, Haider, Qais

Desert Vipers v Dubai Capitals ILT20 pitch report

In Dubai in night games 43 from the last 63 have been been won by the chaser. That's a whopping 68% and it has a bigger bias than Sharjah. This season is it is ten from 13. The run rate in the first innings is 7.6 and in the second it is 8.3. This perfectly highlights how hard it is to bowl with a wet ball because of dew. 

Desert Vipers v Dubai Capitals ILT20 match prediction

Dubai Capitals have won all three on the head-to-head this season. Two of them in night games at Dubai. But guess what? They chased in each of them.

It would be disengenuous to argue that Capitals are the better team, then. There isn't, in truth, an outstanding team in the tournament. As has been stated over and over again: the outsanding team is decided by the flip of the coin.

Our strategy has been to get with the biggest price team. That looks likely to be Capitals with an early show suggesting they will be odds-against. Back them if they chase. 

Desert Vipers v Dubai Capitals ILT20 player bets

Warner gets a 15/82.88 quote for top Dubai bat but it's Sam Billings who interests us at 7/18.00. Billings has a win rate of 18.5% in this tournament and could bat as high as No 4. In Warner's absence against Vipers in the qualifier, Billings hit 38. And we note he went off at 4/15.00 post-toss. So it's a good value bet all-round.

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