Caribbean Premier League Tips Matches Two & Three: The audacity of Hope at 7/2

• Patriots off to a fast start

• Bowling attack looks superb

• Fletcher still top-bat value

• Hope underrated for runs

• Read the CPL team guide HERE

St Kittts & Nevis Patriots v Guyana Amazon Warriors
Saturday 16 August, 00.00
TV: Live on TNT

St Kitts & Nevis Patriots v Guyana Amazon Warriors CPL Tips

The Patriots are taken to cause a shock this season after strong recruitment suggested that finishes of 6-6-5 could be a thing of the past. A dominant opening-day win over Antigua & Barbuda Falcons hinted that that they are on the right track. Game two won't give a definitive answer but it will go very close to doing so.

Coming up against Guyana Amazaon Warriors, runners-up last season and winners the previous year, is a much sterner tests. If their new-look bowling attack performs here, watch them go. Waqar Salmkheil, who had been so dangerous for Trinbago, took four wickets to destroy the Falcons batting and alongside Jason Holder, Naseem Shah and Faz Farooqi this could be the best attack in the tournament.

Guyana are well-balanced, of course. Left-arm pacer Jedia Blades, who has broken into the West Indies team, is eye-catching and they have the spin-bowling stock to go head-to-head with Waqar. The match could be won or lost on how the batting line-ups cope with spin.

One would expect Guyana to have the edge in that regard with Shai Hope, Moeen Ali, Shimron Hetmyer and Glenn Phillips lilkely in the top five. But whether Betfair Sportsbook's odds of 4/51.80 Guyana are right remains to be seen. It is arguable they should be skinnier given the respective teams' record but Guyana could be slow starters.

In terms of the pitch it might be a better batting surface than Falcons' batters suggested. The 121 all out was a surprise with only 10% of matches producing scores of under 140 previously. Historically this is a 160-plus surface. The total runs lines in the low 170s for both teams over/under by Sportsbook are based on that data.

In terms of players to follow we keep faith with Andre Fletcher to top score for Patriots. He wins 32% of the time in the last two years so the 7/24.50 is value. For Guyana, Hope is the top-rated winner at 30%. Sportsbook go 7/24.50. That is too big. 

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons v Barbados Royals CPL Tips

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons v Barbados Royals
Sunday 17 August, 00:00
TV: Live on TNT

Falcons have the opportunity to put a chastening and dispiriting defeat by Patriots behind them quickly. The Royals, who finished third last term, could be a good opponent to get back on track.

They were ranked sixth and fifth respectively in our team guide for batting and bowling power based on 30-game averages. They are heavily reliant on Quinton de Kock and having lost Jason Holder they look to be weaker.

Still, Falcons need to show more mettle. They actually got themselves into the game against Patriots after a new-ball onslaught from the hosts. They had recovered superbly from 39 for three and at 95 for four they were comfortably on course to bust 170. But a collapse to 121 all out exposed their fragility. You just can't rely on the likes of Shakib-al-Hasan while Imad Wasim, the skip, is probably not a No 7 these days.

With no Justin Greaves in the line-up (presumably due to injury), the batting looked very light indeed. Fabian Allen, a fair all-rounder, was asked to bat at No 5. They desperately need Greaves to be available to slot into that opening role and shunt everyone down a spot. If Greaves is available, Falcons may be worth the risk at decent odds against, at least for a trade. 

Greaves could inform an in-play strategy for runs. With him back in the hutch, any semblance of a partnership could mean a runs short for Falcons although we await to learn more about the North Sound surface. The suspicion is that it is a flat one due to some high run rates in the 2024 World Cup.

For tops markets, the best win rates with the bat are Greaves with four wins from seven. Imad has three wins in 11 with the ball. De Kock has returned 41% of the time in the last two years on top bat for Royals. 

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