India v West Indies Fourth T20 Tips: Cash in with Kishan at 15/8

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Wednesday 14 October, 14:30
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India v West Indies fourth T20 team news

India have a 2-1 lead with two to play. They held on by 14 runs in Indore but may be a little perturbed that they were not more efficient in defending 223.

They went with an bowling attack with an emphasis on pace. Mayank Yadav, Arshdeep Singh and Prince Yadav were the spearheads

With Nitish Kumar Reddy's also bowling some medium pace. Naman Dhir and Axar Patel bowled six overs of spin between them.

Kuldeep Yadav and Shivam Dube were left out from the previous game. The absence of a specialist spinner is curious. Kuldeep or Ravi Bishnoi could be under consideration.

A win for the hosts would render the final game a dead rubber so Vaibhav Sooryavanshi is likely to have to wait to come in for Sanju Samson.

Possible XI: Samson, Abhishek, Ishan, Shreyas, Tilak, Reddy, Dhir, Axar, Arshdeep, Prince, Mayank

West Indies would have reckoned they were bang in the game at the break last time out after deciding to field first and restricting India to 223. It seemed like small change after they successfully chased 249 in the previous match.

But they lost Shai Hope in the second over and struggled to get up with the rate. Shamar Springer's 11-ball 35 perhaps flattered them somewhat.

The gamble to use only five bowlers probably seemed right on a flat pitch. Quentin Sampson came in for Romario Shepherd whose star has fallen somewhat over the last year. The question has to be, however, whether Shamar is a better all-round option than Shepherd? Two wickets for 50 from Shamar and a late blast with the bat will split opinion.

The good news was that Kamil Pooran produced an innings of note. His 42 from 27 should give confidence and will mean Amir Jangoo is likely to remain on the sidelines.

Possible XI: Hope, Pooran, Hetmyer, Powell, Rutherford, Sampson, Paul, Springer, Chase, Motie, Shamar

India v West Indies fourth T20 pitch report 

Hyderabad has been extremely flat in the last two years in IPL. The run rate busts 10 in both first- and second-innings. In 12 completed matches there is no toss bias with an even split suggesting the track remains firm and flat. The markets are expectant of another runfest.

Sportsbook's total runs quite for the first dig is one of the highest ever seen at 211.5 at 5/61.84. It is only winning at even money, though. Presumably that quote will also jump if India are confirmed as batting first.  Both teams to score 200 has copped in four of the matches in the study period so the 11/102.11 is also on the skinny side, likewise 9/43.25 about both hitting 210 which has won just twice.

It is hard to argue there is a rick on runs-related markets, unless one is brave and starts going against the tide. Certainly on win rates playing unders is the way to go. There is also the possibility that the rogue Hyderabad pitch is in operation.

There is one track on this square that is bowler friendly. Hence the six scores at 165 or fewer in first-innings in that 12-match study.

India v West Indies fourth T20 match prediction 

West Indies have proved to be competitive on this white-ball tour and they will be confident of going close to levelling the series in game four.

They are far from a mug bet at this stage. We like what we have seen, particularly recognising that the route to an upset is to pack their batting. Roston Chase and Gudakesh Motie were at Nos 9 and 10 last time.

The 4.131/10 on a Windies win therefore is worth a gamble. It could be a price to trade on the Betfair Exchange, particularly if it is a flat Hyderabad wicket. With a fast start West indies will soon be taking chunks out of that price. They have also showed spirit in the chase.

India v West Indies fourth T20 player tips 

For game three we noted that Abhishek Sharma and Ishan Kishan were both overdue on the top-bat markets but instead pointed towards milestones with easier wins at the 'to score 30 or more' markets. Both copped. We do expect a big knock from Ishan, still, though after Abhishek took the honours. Despite concern about whether we get a curve ball with the Hyderabad wicket, we do still have to be cautious and stick to the strategy of filtering out the variables. That means we bet Kishan for runs, not Kishan for runs and each of his team-mates to lose in a match bet. The bet that sticks out is the 15/82.88 that he notches a 50.

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