Caribbean Premier League Tips Matches 10 and 11: Kings could 'upset' Trinbago

• Holders shouldn't be as big to beat TKR

• David dangerous for Kings

• Pace off could be key

• Falcons underrated

• Patriuots way too short with their record

St Lucia Kings v Trinbago Knight Riders
Sunday 24 August, 00.00
TV: Live on TNT

St Lucia Kings v Trinbago Knight Riders CPL Tips

Caribbean Premier League 2025 has been a phoney war for St Lucia Kings, the holders. With the tournament more than a week old the Kings have got on the field once, beating Patriots by three runs in a thriller. Their other match was washed out.

Undercooked doesn't cover it when one considers the likes of Patriots and Falcons have played five matches. But it has at least given Kings time to get players like Tim David right, who would probably have missed the start of the season after flying in from Australia.

David's 43 from 26 made all the difference against Patriots. He is crucial to Kings in the middle order with the likes of Ackeem Auguste and Roston Chase not considered traditional hitters.

They are without Noor Ahmad and Faf Du Plessis this season and although Tabraiz Shamsi is a decent alternative for the former, they may rely more heavily on coach Daren Sammy's nous than ever before.

That could make the difference against a Trinbago team which are there for the taking. With one win and one defeat we expect inconsistency. Their roster would have been unbeatable ten years ago but defeat by Falcons in the first upset of the campaign has further punctured the aura around the franchise. With no Andre Russell yet there are plenty of holes to be exploited, notably an ageing Alex Hales up top and Darren Bravo in the middle order.

The 2.588/5 about Kings looks very chunky indeed. At the very least Kings should be able to flip these odds for a simple in and out trade. Recognising that pace off will be crucial  and could be the game. In Chase, Shamsi, Kharry Pierre and David Wiese they can limit the potential profligacy of Alzarri Joseph.

For players to follow, Nic Pooran has had a quiet start. He retains win-rate value at 5/23.50 but he will soon begin to test patience. In Major League he had a disappointing return and hopefully he should be roused from his funk in time for this one. 

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons v St Kitts & Nevis Patriots
Sunday 24 August, 16:00
TV: Live on TNT

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons v St Kitts & Patriots CPL Tips

Before this tournament started these pages analysed Falcons as a team which should be competitive and durable. But ultimately found wanting against the best of the best.

And so it has proved. Falcons had made their way to the top of the table (sure, by dint of playing more games than most) with Barbados and Trinbago vanquished and a handy points boost thanks to a washout. Against the might of Guyana Amazaon Warriors, however, they suffered a heavy beating. They conceded 211 and were then rolled for 128.

So long as they don't take that defeat to heart and recognise they are a work in progress they can have a good crack at bouncing back against a Patriots team who should hold no fears. Even in a tough campaign last season Falcons were in the mix for the points at the death of matches and they should certainly be capable of testing Patriots.

Odds of 2.305/4 on the Betfair Exchange appear to be simultaneously generous about Falcons and horrible, mean value on Patriots. Patriots are one of the worst options for some time in this comp at a skinny 1.748/11. This is a team which has finished bottom twice in the last two campaigns.

We actually had high hopes this term that bowling reinforcements would change their fortunes. But they conceded 231 and 200 against Trinbago and St Lucia. The head-to-head win over Falcons at the start of the season is probably the pre-determining factor in the odds but we're happy to gamble that Falcons have picked up. The massive gulf that the odds implies is hard to spot.

We stick with Justin Greaves at 15/28.50 for top Falcons bat. Four wins from seven last term as opener means that if he is fit, it's a wrong price. Money back if non-runner. 

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