Caribbean Premier League Tips 15 and 16: Don't miss 80/1 top-bat gamble

• Kings should take points v Pats

• Big runs likely though at Gros Islet

• Royals in trouble

• Nyeem too big for top bat

• Pooran has to be a swerve

St Lucia Kings v St Kitts & Nevis Patriots
Friday 29 August, 00.00
TV: Live on TNT

St Lucia Kings v St Kitts & Nevis Patriots CPL Tips

The holders have been frustrated by two washouts but a success over the powerful Guyana Amazon Warriors last time out solidifies the view that they remain a force to be reckoned with. The Kings should collect the points against a side also suffering with the status quo. It could be another bottom-placed finish for the Pats.

Kings recorded record-breaking profligacy against Guyana, conceding 202. That they got up to win in the chase showed commendable guts. They are, surely, unlikely to play Oshane Thomas again. One of his deliveries cost 22 and the whole over went for 32 as Warriors were given impetus at 95 for five. Alongside Keon Gaston it does look an attack which can be pricey (he conceded 15 an over). That won't change much if Alzarri Joseph comes back into the XI.

At Gros Islet it is a combination that suggests runs are the order of the day. We know it has been a flat wicket historically and have evidence this season that remains the case. We have scores of 182 and that 202 by Guyana against Kings so far.

The par line on Betfair Exchange may ask us to go over around the 180 mark for Patriots and late 180s for Kings. We would happy to go long of either. It seems the most sensible course of action when there is no evidence that both teams to score prices with Sportsbook a ricks. The 7/24.50 for both to score 190 is a tempter until you realise that it has no win rate to form as a foundation for the bet.

If Pats do go big and the Kings price reacts accordingly at the break, we would be getting involved with the holders to chase up to 220 at big odds in-play.

Players to follow include both openers for either team; Johnson Charles for Kings and Evin Lewis for Patriots. Charles has been in terrific form and is reliable on flat wickets. He has a top-bat win already but we're shying away from that market on a road. It makes sense to take rivals out of the equation and just back your pick for runs so the 5/23.50 for a 50 makes sense. Lewis is not as consistent but could be due a score. He is 3/14.00 for a 50. 

Trinbago Knight Riders v Barbados Royals
Saturday 30 August, 00:00
TV: Live on TNT

Trinbago Knight Riders v Barbados Royals CPL Tips

Trinbago downed Falcons on Thursday to go one point off top of the table with two games in hand and gain revenge for a loss in the previous head-to-head. They won at a canter and the TKR crew will be confident that this is their year. This match should afford another opportunity for maximum points against another weak team.

Royals have been a major disappointment with two defeats in the two matches they have made it out onto the park. It should send the alarm bells ringing that both defeats came against Falcons and Patriots, two teams who they are likely to be scrapping with now to avoid finishing bottom. As has been said before in these pages, Royals have big boy power in Rovman Powell and Sherfane Rutherford  but not big boy responsibility. They need to get up the order and take innings by the scruff of the neck instead of waiting for others to do the work.

This is especially true in Tarouba. From the TKR-Falcons match it looked a traditionally slow surface. Falcons laboured to 146. In the last 40 games only 33% of first-innings have busted 160. Immediately, under 159.5 Royals runs this like a bet at 5/61.84 with Sportsbook. 

Royals, whose four-game losing streak at the end of last season was a warning, went udners that mark in both matches last season against Trinbago so they will have to go well. With runs potentially at a premium, Nyeem Young is a top-bat pick at 80/181.00. He has won this market before and is a bowling all-rounder who can strike well. Quinton de Kock is the man to beat, of course, but it is fair to reckon Nyeem is underrated.

For TKR, unfortunately, we have to make a call on Nic Pooran at 3/14.00 for top bat. We just can't be taking those skinny prices about a batter who has now been moved down to No 4. He is not getting the crease time even though his win rate suggests success is imminent. 

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