Australia v Pakistan First T20 Tips: Babar and Rauf could cause another 'shock'

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Australia v Pakistan
Thursday 14 November 08:00
TV: live on TNT Sports

Australia v Pakistan First T20 team news

One could be forgiven for thinking Australia feel chastened by a home series ODI defeat by Pakistan. Not a bit of it. They once again go in with a reserve team as they keep their eyes firmly fixed on bigger fish to fry.

The big guns are absent, notably Pat Cummins, Travis Head, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood. There are still good players available, make no mistake, but the edge goes from teams it seems when they are half-mast.

Much may depend on the likes of battle-hardened Glenn Maxwell and Marcus Stoinis doing bits with bat and ball. Josh Inglis will skipper. Matt Short and Jake Fraser-McGurk struggled as an opening pair in the ODI and get another chance.

Possible Australia XI: Short, Fraser-McGurk, Inglis, Maxwell, Hardie, Stoinis, Connolly, Abbott, Bartlett, Zampa, Ellis

Pakistan should be buzzing following their come-from-behind success in the ODI. Haris Rauf was the star of the show in that series as he took ten wickets across the three games.

Rauf must go to the well again but he has always loved playing in Australia so fatigue shouldn't really come into it. Pakistan have the opportunity to team him up with Naseem Shah and Shaheen Afridi and we expect them to take it. Abbas Afridi could play with no Muhammad Hasnain.

It would be a surprise if slow left-armer Araft Minhas didn't play here, though while all-rounder Jahandad Khan should also come in. Mohammad Riwan could form a Multan Sultans reunion with Usman Khan at the top of the order. Rather surprisingly there is no Saim Ayub.

Probable Pakistan XI: Rizwan, Usman Khan, Babar, Salman, Irfan, Jahandad, Minhas, Afridi, Naseem, Rauf, Abbas

Australia v Pakistan First T20 pitch report

The Gabba has the potential for runs. More than 170 has been busted in ten of the last 21, with five of those more than 190. We are anxious about playing a par line of overs early 170s if Pakistan were to be batting first. Unless Usman goes hard they are set up to post 160-odd with Rizwan and Babar Azam having a unique take on the format. The big pointer is the toss. It is not immediately obvious. In all-time night matches in Brisbane there's a 55% bias for the team batting first. In the last five years that explodes to 71%.

Australia v Pakistan First T20 match prediction

Australia are 1.528/15 on an early show so it is reasonable to expect Pakistan to get up towards that 2.506/4 mark. That would appear to be a very decent price about the visitors given the respective strengths of the two teams. This is not vintage Aussies.

Throw in the toss bias in Pakistan's favour and you have a perfectly good wager. If - as the trend suggests - that there is seam and swing under lights then it is reasonable to reckon that Rauf and co, just like in the ODI, prove too hot to handle.

As stated we do have worries about the Pakistan batting being powerful enough. None of the top order hits at more than 130. They could well set out for their 160-odd par. But the overarching feel is that they should be skinnier here. We don't expect the match odds to move much on the toss.

Australia v Pakistan First T20 player bets

We hit the win rates for top Pakistan bat and bowler in the absence of clear steers on a fractured Aussie win-rate market. Babar Azam at [13/5] and Haris Rauf at 11/43.75 fit the bill. Both should be favourites for top bat and bowler respectively because none of their team-mates win as regularly as them in the last two years. Babar has been having his own private contest with Rizwan. Between them they have 15 wins in 20-odd games. Babar's win rate is 39% (23 matches) compared to Rizwan's 28%. Rauf cops at a rate of 43%, almost twice as good as market jolly Afridi.

If we're wrong about Babar but right about a Pakistan batting go-slow, Minhas and Jahandad are potentials at 35/136.00 and18/119.00 respectively because they are so aggressive with strike rates domestically in the 140s and 180s.

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