Mutua Madrid Open Tips: Baghdatis to leave Lopez feeling blue

Both the ATP tour and the Mutau Madrid Open tournament organisers believe that it is a good thing that tournaments are trying to be innovative. As a result, this year's Madrid event takes place on blue clay courts. However, a few players disagree, with Rafael Nadal the most outraged. He claims that the blue is too soft and slippery and that the high altitude and thin air of Spring in Madrid negates the strengths of his game and helps his rivals. Nadal, who is 33-2 in career clay-court finals but 1-2 in Madrid, is therefore worth laying at 1.9620/21 in the outright winner market.

With punters getting their first glimpse of the blue clay courts on TV today, I have chosen a player who I believe can negate the low bouncing surface and make it through to the next round.

My first tip is to back Marcos Baghdatis to defeat Guillermo Garcia Lopez at what I deem an inflated price of 2.0421/20. The Greek Cypriot reached the quarter-finals of Munich and showed decent form in his loss to the improved Tommy Haas last week, especially in the tie-break second set. He has had plenty of time to practice on this new surface, something his opponent hasn't been able to do.

Garcia-Lopez will be less prepared, having been granted a last minute wild-card thanks to David Nalbandian's withdrawal. The Spaniard also has poor recent clay court form losing to Benoit Paire in a second round match in Belgrade and Jan Hajek in the second round of the Rome challenger tournament.

With Baghdatis holding a superior ranking, match rating (ratings based on form specific to the current tournament conditions and the opposing player) and surface rating, we could see a flip in price and a change of favourite before the off, so get your money on the Cypriot before it's too late.

Recommended Bet
Back Marcos Baghdatis @ 2.0421/20 to defeat Guillermo Garcia Lopez