Portillo moments, Green seats and early returns - how election night might pan out...

General Election Betting / Eliot Pollak / 05 May 2010 / 1 Comments

A right balls up? Ed Balls (left) is the biggest Labour name in danger

"There may be some money to be made in laying the results of the exit poll. In 1987, the 10pm poll showed a victory for Neil Kinnock’s Labour. Five hours later, once some votes had actually been counted, it was clear Maggie was returning with a majority in excess of 100."

Eliot Pollak marks your card for the highlights and lowlights of Thursday May 6, 2010

So after months of nonsense, it's finally here. May 6, election day, and time to make your big decision folks.

Will you stick with the familiar, the comfortable old slippers, preferring the devil you know? Or how about going with the younger version of the old guard? Reliable and ever so keen - it could work. Or maybe it really is time to do something different and live a bit? After all, they have set the pace during the campaign.

No, not Brown, Cameron and Clegg you fool. Dimbleby (D), Dimbleby (J) or Boulton - the really meaningful decision come Thursday.

But whether you opt for the good old Beeb, eager ITV or live a little and risk seeing Peter Mandelson in HD on Sky, here are the moments to look out for.

10pm: High drama with the exit poll announced. Whichever channel you're on, the result will be the same, as to heighten accuracy, all three channels pool the same poll.

But whilst the exit poll should prove more accurate than anything we have seen to date, don't get too excited. In fact, there may be some money to be made in laying the results of the exit poll.

In 1987, the 10pm poll showed a victory for Neil Kinnock's Labour. Five hours later, once some votes had actually been counted, it was clear Maggie was returning with a majority in excess of 100.

11.30pm: The first constituencies declare, typically around the Sunderland area. Labour should hold ground here, but any shocks (particularly in Sunderland Central where it would require a swing of 12% to elect a Tory MP at odds of [3.45]), will mean David Cameron should be in for a better night than anyone predicted.

1am: Potentially the first ministerial casualty of the night, as Phil Woolas defends Oldham East and Saddleworth against the Lib Dems, who are priced at [1.45].

Charles Clarke will be defending Norwich South a little later from a similar enemy and he is [3.55] to keep his seat. If Woolas or Clarke falls, the Lib Dems are well on their way to knocking Labour into third place in the share of the popular vote.

2am: Target number 1 seat for the Lib Dems to take off the Tories is Guildford, where a 0.09% swing will do the business. The Clegg bubble can be considered burst if the Tories hold on here at [1.5].

Yet, if the Lib Dems are having a great night, this could also be the time when the biggest Tory casualty, Oliver Letwin, loses his seat in Dorset West. A swing of 4.6% will unseat him, and the Lib Dems can be backed at 2.92 to win this seat.

3am: The Portillo moment. Ed Balls is [1.86] to hold on in Morley and Outwood, but if he doesn't, this will be the defining image of New Labour's death.

Also around this time should be the declaring of Brighton Pavilion, where the Greens are [1.66] favourites to win their first ever seat in Parliament.

4am: Away from the melee, if you fancy another bout of Galloway vs Paxman, Poplar and Limehouse should declare about now, where Respect are [8.8] to make a gain from Labour.

Meanwhile the residents of Barking may live up their constituency's name, by electing a BNP MP at a price of [5.3].

By 5am, we should have a pretty good idea of who will be, or at least who will not be the next Government. With the markets intimating a hung parliament, one person's cross in the box could be more decisive than any of ours will ever be. Over to you ma'am...

Comments (1)

1. P Hirst | 05 May 2010

   The Oldham count is due to finish at about 3am, not 1am.