Jack Houghton's Betting Challenge Week 18: Dogs, politics and fighting

General Election Betting / Jack Houghton / 12 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

"At [4.1], the Betting Challenge is having £20 on their being No Overall Majority in the next General Election."

At one end a civilising force; at the other a brutal assault on humanity; in the middle a cacophony of baying men surrounding competing animals. This week the Betting Challenge delivery truck makes three drop-offs: at Westminster; at UFC 107; and at Wimbledon for the Greyhound Oaks. You can always rely on the dogs for civility, says Jack Houghton.

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

*

Last time the UK saw a General Election return a hung parliament - and I'm not talking MPs' inside-leg measurements here - was February, 1974. Edward Heath's Conservative government - reeling from a worldwide oil crisis, an economy in ruin, trade union strife and the Three-Day Week - faced the electorate in disarray: losing 33 seats; and with it, their parliamentary majority.

The parallels with the incumbent Labour government are obvious. Gordon Brown has been caught at the tiller during a global economic meltdown. Continually lurching from one PR-debacle to another - a pinball thrust unwillingly from goof to gaff - his defeat looks certain; as does a Conservative victory.

But winning the most seats (which the Conservatives most certainly will) is different to winning a parliamentary majority. To avoid a hung parliament, the Tories need to gain 126 new constituencies, and that's no certainty. At [4.1], the Betting Challenge is having £20 on their being No Overall Majority in the next General Election.

There's no reason to think the Tories will increase their representation in Scotland or Wales. And they'll face stiff opposition in England from the Liberal Democrats. Then there's a host of minor parties who look set to play a prominent role in an election where the voters are increasingly disillusioned at the crass ineptitude of major party politics.

*****

When Tyrur Liz smashed Cabra Exclusive by five-and-a-half lengths in the first semi-final of the Greyhound Oaks, I was certain the former would go off in the final at shorter than twos-on. However, at [1.80], the layers are being overly generous, and the Betting Challenge is having £20 on at the price.

Front-running Shaws Dilemma looked good - whilst not dominant - winning the second semi-final, but does not have the ability or recent form to trouble the favourite. Layers are no doubt hoping Cabra Exclusive will hold up the wide-running Tyrur Liz long enough to make a difference, but that slight risk is more than accounted for in the generous price.

*****

In the early hours of Sunday morning, lightweights BJ Penn and Diego Sanchez will climb into an octagonal metal cage and engage in a barely-evolved brawl as they try and walk away with a belt and - hopefully - limb, major organ, and brain-function intact.

Welcome to UFC 107. In fairness to the event (found under Mixed Martial Arts in the Betfair menu), it is not just a mindless, televised street-scrap. No, no: there are rules. Timidity, for example, is banned. As is throwing in the towel. And bad language is prohibited in the cage. Way to go in getting your priorities right, fellas.

Diego Sanchez, at [3.6], looks value to cause an upset against Penn. The Betting Challenge is having £10 on at the price.

This week's bets:
£20 Back No Overall Majority at [4.1] in next General Election.
£20 Back Tyrur Liz at [1.80] in Greyhound Oaks.
£10 Back Diego Sanchez at [3.6] in UFC 107.