Open Championship 2026 Tips: Dave Tindall's each-way picks from 28/1 to 30/1

---

Introduction to The Open Championship

While a delve into the vast volumes of history books (the first Open took place in 1860) throws up the odd random winner, a glance of the champions at Royal Birkdale reveals quality name after quality name.

The list includes Arnold Palmer (1961), Lee Trevino (1971), Johnny Miller (1976) and Tom Watson (1983) while multiple major winners Padraig Harrington (2008) and Jordan Spieth (2017) captured the last two editions to be staged on the iconic Southport links.

Harrington's win came in ultra-tough conditions when +3 took the title while even par was sufficient for Mark O'Meara in 1998.

But Jordan Spieth fired 12-under in 2017 while 9-under has been the most popular winning score.

While the venue rotates, Open winners need certain skills. Avoiding pot bunkers off the tee, control with approaches, being creative around the greens and having a low ball game rather than just launching it high as at other majors.

That said, you'll find plenty of Open winners who won at Augusta. Indeed, Mark O'Meara landed the Open here in 1998 just three months after claiming the Green Jacket.

Spieth's win at Birkdale in 2017 came during a run at the Masters in which he went 2-1-2-11-3 from 2014 to 2018.

With its dramatic links dunes that frame the mostly flat fairways, Birkdale is a proper and authentic test.

---

Dave Tindall's Open Bet 1: Collin Morikawa each-way @ 30/131.00

I wasn't aware of this until having an elongated browse but Data Golf rankings go all the way back to 1983. That means we have a measure of the form and calibre of the last five Open winners at Birkdale.

And the takeaway is that every one of them was in the top 20.

Jordan Spieth was ranked 2nd, Padraig Harrington 16th, Mark O'Meara 19th, Ian Baker-Finch 4th (the win took him to 1st) and Tom Watson 1st.

Needless to say, had the rankings gone further back every Birkdale champion would have been in the top 20.

It looks to be a great filter and in my trends preview I noted that seven of the last 10 Open winners (across the various courses) were ranked in Datagolf's top 10.

There's a second line of attack that helps reduce the list of contenders even further.

Open winners at Birkdale also win at Pebble Beach.

O'Meara was coined the 'Prince of Pebble' after five wins on the beautiful Californina links while Tom Watson captured the 1982 US Open there having won the regular Pebble Beach Pro-Am in 1977 and 1978.

Spieth won at Pebble in the same season as his Open victory at Birkdale while 1976 Open champion Johnny Miller won at Pebble three times, the last in 1994 as a semi-retired 46-year-old.

Collin Morikawa is 8th in the Datagolf rankings and will be trying to 'do a Spieth' by winning an Open at Birkdale in the same season as lifting the silverware at Pebble Beach.

The Californian shot 62-67 over the weekend on the Monterey Peninsula to secure that win in February but then his season took a twist after a back injury sustained during March's Players Championship.

He's still nursing it although since returning he's posted seventh at the US Masters, fourth at Hilton Head (another coastal event Spieth has won) and third at the Travelers Championship last time out.

Speaking there, he said: "Still kind of dealing with the back stuff a little bit. It's a lot better than what it was at the Masters, even through the PGA, but still not comfortable. I'm still kind of dancing around things.

"Each shot I'm out there I'm focused so much on making contact versus hitting shots, and that's a hard way to play. But thankfully the game feels good enough where I'm able to put some scores together like this, and I think I'll be able to use this heading into The Open Championship."

But let's lean into some more Birkdale history.

In 2008 here, the then defending Padraig Harrington drifted in the betting after news broke of a wrist injury that could possibly have caused him to withraw. Even after round one, it was a big topic of discussion.

However, this was a triumph for the 'beware the injured golfer' maxim as Harrington went on to win.

Morikawa, as Harrington was back then, is already an Open champion after pulling off the remarkable feat of winning on his tournament debut at Royal St George's in 2021.

He's actually missed three Open cuts since then but 16th at Royal Troon was a reminder of his talents and 10 top 10s in the majors since 2020, including two wins, shows that he's become a regular cast member in golf's biggest showpieces.

Ranked 1st in SG: Approach again this year, that elite iron play should hopefully take him far. Spieth was ranked 2nd for Approach in the season of his Birkdale win in 2017.

---

Dave Tindall's Open Bet #2 - Justin Rose each-way @ 28/129.00

Justin Rose is another former Pebble Beach winner, the Englishman taking the title by three in 2023.

He's currently 22nd in the Datagolf rankings although as high as 10th in the OWGR.

Rose, of course, made his name at Birkdale as a baggy-trousered teenage amateur in 1998.

He capped an absolute fairlytale week by chipping in for birdie at the last to finish tied fourth.

Despite making the cut he didn't feature in either 2008 or 2017 but after struggling a little when returning to UK links courses having played so much golf in America, he's twice been an Open runner-up in recent times: 2018 (Carnoustie) and 2024 (Troon).

Rory McIlroy went 11 years between winning majors (it was 10 for Ernie Els) and I'm absolutely not ruling out Rose bridging what would be a 13-year gap.

Quite simply, the majors have been a huge focus for him in the last few years and he's delivered.

Rose has posted second and third at the last two Masters and his majors form this year reads 3-10-11.

Darren Clarke, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Henrik Stenson all won the Open in their 40s and 45-year-old can follow suit.

Earlier this year he enjoyed another triumph by the coast when romping to a seven-shot victory in the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines.

He's been ticking over nicely since and it's noticeable that his three best finishes since Torrey Pines win all came in majors.

Last week Rose released 'Chasing Forever', a documentary for The R&A's YouTube channel about his chase for the claret jug.

Hopefully it'll need an update after this week.

---

Dave's Open Bet #3: Robert MacIntyre each-way @ 30/131.00

As well as Morikawa and Rose, the other two winners at Pebble Beach in the last four years are a certain Rory McIlroy and newly-crowned US Open champion Wyndham Clark.

McIlroy is too short a price for this each-way preview while Clark I have covered a bigger odds in my trends preview. Clark finished joint-top with Morikawa.

As for those at bigger prices I'll perhaps include a couple in my 'specials' preview later in the week.

So, for a final pick, let's add in another player with a genuine chance of being crowned Open champion.

Bob Charles won at Lytham, Brian Harman took glory at Hoylake so how about another left-hander winning an Open on the Lancashire coast?

Robert MacIntyre is the standout candidate and he comes in off a tied third in his home Genesis Scottish Open.

It could have gone even better after he took the outright lead on Sunday with an opening birdie but, after a poor run, he did end on a positive note with a good back nine.

MacIntyre now has a first, a second and a third at The Renaissance Club while he also captured last October's Alfred Dunhill Links Championship.

This is his first start at Birkdale but it's worth adding in that he finished tied second down the road at Hillside when it staged the 2019 British Masters.

The case grows stronger when we focus pure and simply on his Open record.

MacIntyre has played in six Opens and finished in the top eight in three of them (2019, 2021 and 2025).

Back to a trends stat that each of the last 10 Open champions had already posted a win or a second in a major and he ticks that box too.

That came courtesy of a second place in the 2025 US Open at Oakmont.

MacIntyre ranked 1st for SG: Approach in the Scottish Open. Add that to his 9th place for SG: Putting on the PGA Tour this season and it's quite a package.

Time for Scotland to get its first major winner since Paul Lawrie in the 1999 Open.

---

Now read more Golf tips and previews here.

---

*You can follow me on Twitter @DaveTindallgolf

---