The Open

2026 Open Championship: The Punter's Preview

  • Steven Rawlings
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The Open Championship takes place from 16 - 19 July at Royal Birkdale so read Steve Rawlings' in-depth guide to the year's final golf major, find out what history and the stats tell us here...


Open Championship history

After a sensible change to the scheduling seven years ago, the oldest and greatest of the four majors, the Open Championship, often referred to as the British Open, is now the final one of the four to be staged each year.

Organised by the Royal and Ancient Golf Club of St. Andrews (the R&A), the Open Championship is the only one of the four majors to be played outside of the USA. Willie Park won the inaugural tournament way back in 1860 and this will be the 154rd edition.

Although a nomadic tournament, the Open Championship is always staged on a links course and this year we're returning to Royal Birkdale for the 11th time.


Venue

Royal Birkdale, Southport, England


Course details

Par 70, 7,223 yards

Birkdale was founded as long ago as 1889 and it became Royal Birkdale in 1951, three years before it staged its first Open Championship. It was first nominated for the event in 1940 but the event was cancelled due to World War II.

Royal Birkdale isn't a traditional out-and-in links course and consecutive holes rarely run in the same direction. High dunes provide great vantage points for spectators of what is widely regarded as one of the truest tests of links golf.

It's a tough but fair links and we've seen a huge range of scores.

Jordan Sieth went as low as -17 in 2017, and Branden Grace shot the first 62 in a major championship, but when the wind blows it's a brute.

Padraig Harrington won the 2008 renewal staged here in three-over-par. A full 20 strokes more than Spieth! Only the par five 17th hole averaged below par 18 years ago and that's the only time this century that the tournament has been won with an over-par total.

This is what Harrington told Golfing World about the venue.

"It's a solid, strong course - doesn't give you anything. Big, tough, strong, fair links course. The fairways are pretty flat, the greens are pretty flat, it's all there in front of you. There's no mystery, no trickery. Big, strong, fair golf course."

And Tommy Fleetwood, who grew up within walking distance of the course, told Golfing World.

"It's one of the only courses I've been to where every bunker is in play on every hole. It's a real, real test off the tee but once you get it in play it's not too bad from there. But it's one of the toughest driving courses I think you'll find."

Given those two comments, it's perhaps not surprising to see that, with the possible exception of Ian Baker-Finch, the list of Royal Birkdale Open winners is like who's who of golf.

Royal Birkdale was venue for Peter Thomson's first and fifth Open victories and it's famed for its art deco clubhouse, which was built in 1935. It's staged the event 10 times previously, and here's that illustrious list of winners.

1954 - Peter Thomson (Australia) -9
1961 - Arnold Palmer -4
1965 - Peter Thomson -7
1971 - Lee Trevino -14
1976 - Johnny Miller -9
1983 - Tom Watson -9
1991 - Ian Baker-Finch -8
1998 - Mark O'Meara Ev (playoff)
2008 - Padraig Harrington +3
2017 - Jordan Spieth -12

There have been a few changes to the course since Jordan Spieth won here nine years ago, which are detailed in this Golf Course Architecture piece and there's a full hole-by-hole guide on the Open website here.


Weather Forecast 


TV Coverage

Live on Sky Sports all four days, starting at 6:30 on Thursday morning 


Last 12 Open winners with pe-event Betfair Exchange prices

2025 - Scottie Scheffler -17 7.06/1
2024 - Xander Schauffele -9 15.529/2
2023 - Brain Harman -13 170.0169/1
2022 - Cam Smith -20 26.025/1
2021 - Collin Morikawa -15 42.041/1
2020 - Championship cancelled
2019 - Shane Lowry -15 100.099/1
2018 - Francesco Molinari -8 38.037/1
2017 - Jordan Spieth -12 17.016/1
2016 - Henrik Stenson -20 25.024/1
2015 - Zach Johnson -15 150.0149/1 (playoff)
2014 - Rory McIlroy -17 19.018/1
2013 - Phil Mickelson -3 21.020/1


A statistical look at the Open

Here's the top five and ties at the last two Opens at Royal Birkdale.

(Key: DD - DA - Driving Accuracy; Driving Distance; GIR - Greens in Regulation; SC - Scrambling; PA - Putting Average)

2008
1 Padraig Harrington +3 DA 37 DD 45 GIR 30 SC 13 PA 4
2 Ian Poulter +7 DA 13 DD 50 GIR 7 SC 26 PA 37
T3 Greg Norman +9 DA 76 DD 37 GIR 38 SC 3 PA 21
T3 Henrik Stenson +9 DA 4 DD 18 GIR 38 SC 4 PA 31
T5 Jim Furyk +10 DA 26 DD 31 GIR 5 SC 24 PA 61
T5 Chris Wood +10 DA 32 DD 15 GIR 38 SC 10 PA 31

2017
1 Jordan Spieth -17 DA 59 DD 44 GIR 3 SC 4 PA 10
2 Matt Kuchar -9 DA 41 DD 55 GIR 29 SC 18 PA 9
3 Haotong Li -6  DA 70 DD 27 GIR 47 SC 9 PA 4
T4 Rafa Cabrera-Bello -5 DA 17 DD 40 GIR 11 SC 12 PA 31
T4 Rory McIlroy -5 DA 41 DD 3 GIR 58 SC 12 PA 19

Although the Championship is played at a different venue each year, links golf offers up broadly the same test whichever venue is used so here's a look at the average traditional statistical rankings for the winners of the last ten Open Championships.

Average traditional stats for the last 10 Open winners

Driving Accuracy - 41.3
Driving Distance - 29.3
G.I.R - 12.6
Scrambling - 9.1
Putting Average - 9.4

Strokes Gained stats were produced for the first time at the Open Championship four years ago, so here's the last four Open winners with their Strokes Gained stats.

(Key: SG-T - Strokes Gained: Off the Tee; SG-A - Strokes Gained: Approach; SG-ATG - Strokes Gained: Around the Tee; SG-T2G - Strokes Gained: Tee to Green; SG-P - Strokes Gained: Putting)

2022 - Cam Smith - SG:T:34, SG:A:24, SG:ATG:22, SG:T2G:17, SG:P:1
2023 - Brian Harman - SG:T:15, SG:A:30, SG:ATG:27, SG:T2G:17, SG:P:1
2024 - Xander Schauffele - SG:T:11, SG:A:2, SG:ATG:15, SG:T2G:1, SG:P:16
2025 - Scottie Scheffler - SG:T: 38, SG:A:1, SG:ATG:59, SG:T2G:7, SG:P:2

A good week with the putter is important according to both the traditional and Strokes Gained data and what you do off the tee appears largely unimportant.


Is a start in the Scottish Open essential?

Now that the Scottish Open is co-sanctioned with the PGA Tour, and that the field strength has increased dramatically as a result, what used to be a really great angle in is now just a factor well worthy of mention.

Links golf is quite unique and ever since the Scottish Open moved away from Loch Lomond, after the 2010 edition, to take in various wonderful Scottish links, an appearance in the Scottish the week before the Open has often proved beneficial.

The last four Open winners have finished 10th, 12th, 15th and eighth in the Scottish Open.

Bryson DeChambeau, who finished tied 10th, was the only players inside the top -13 last year that didn't warm up in the Scottish Open and the first four home at Troon in 2024 were all in the line-up at the Renaissance.

The 2022 winner, Cam Smith, who finished tied for 10th in the Scottish Open, made it quite clear that playing the Scottish Open had been key to winning at St Andrews.

"I started to feel really good with where my game was at last weekend at the Scottish Open, I had a really, really solid weekend."

Since the Scottish Open has been regularly played on a links layout, 10 of the last 14 Open winners have played in the event and it was very nearly 11. Matt Kuchar, who traded at odds-on here before he was beaten by Jordan Spieth in 2017, had finished fourth in the Scottish.

Looking at the four winners that hadn't played in the Scottish Open, Spieth is the only one that hadn't played recently. His last appearance had been almost a month earlier when he'd won the Travelers Championship, but Zach Johnson won the Open in 2015, a week after finishing third at the John Deere Classic on the PGA Tour and Francesco Molinari won the Open after finishing second in the John Deere Classic.

Shane Lowry didn't play in the Scottish Open when he won seven years ago but that made plenty of sense. Having finished 34th in the Irish Open on a links layout two weeks before the Open at Royal Portrush, he decided to stay in his native Ireland and tick over on links tracks instead of travelling back and fore to Scotland.


A recent victory is a big plus

As many as nine of the last 11 Open winners had won earlier in the season.

The 2023 winner, Brian Harman, hadn't won in six years but he was just the fifth Open winner this century not to have won on either the DP World Tour or the PGA Tour in the previous 12 months and the last two winners, Xander Schauffele and Scottie Scheffler, had already tucked away a major. Both men won the US PGA Championship a few months before winning the Open. Is that an omen for this year's PGA champ, Arron Rai?

This year's other two majors, the US Masters and the US Open, both went the way of previous winners. Rory defended the title at Augusta and Wyndham Clark won at Shinnecock three years after winning his first title at Los Angeles Golf Club but history suggests it's odds-on that the winner on Sunday will be winning a major for the first time, although they will, in all probability, be inside the top 50 in the Official World Rankings...

As many as 25 of the last 43 (57%) major championships have gone to a first-time major winner but 56 of the last 57 majors have been won by someone inside the world's top 50. The odd man out is Phil Mickelson who defied all sorts of logic at the 2021 US PGA Championship when he won at the age of 51 - ranking 115th in the world.

Although five of the last nine Open winners hadn't won a major, all five had finished second in one and we have to go all the way back to Louis Oosthuizen's shock win in 2010 to find the last Open winner not to have finished first or second in a previous major. And bizarrely, in addition to his victory at St Andrews 16 years ago, he's now famously finished runner-up in all four!


Open Championship form is a huge plus

The 2022 winner, Cam Smith, had poor previous Open form figures reading MC-78-20-33 and Collin Morikawa was playing in his first Open but Scheffler had Open form figures reading 8-21-23-7 prior to his victory 12 months ago and the 2024, Schauffele, had finished second in his second Open in 2018.

Previous Open Championship form had been a huge pointer over the years with as many as 17 of the last 20 winners have recorded a top ten in the Open previously.

As many as 14 of the last 20 winners have finished inside the top six in an Open previously and nine of the last 20 winners had finished inside the top three. 

Even though it's played at a different venue each year, the examination is always similar and it's totally unique to anything else encountered so previous tournament experience is clearly important but widening the research out to all majors, as Dave Tindall highlights, eight of the last 10 Open winners had posted a top 20 in one of their previous two majors.


Experience counts at this major

Jordan Spieth was only 23 when he won here nine years ago. Tiger Woods, in 2000, and Collin Morikawa, in 2021, were only slightly older at 24, and those three are the youngest winners this century but with length off the tee largely an irrelevance, the older players can and do fare well in this major.

Henrik Stenson had turned 40 just three months before he won at Troon a decade ago and the 2015 winner, Zach Johnson, turned 40 eight months after he'd won. 

When Stenson took the title 10 years ago, 46-year-old Phil Mickelson finished second and 49-year-old Steve Stricker finished fourth and yet they were mere pups in comparison to a couple of fairly recent contenders... 

Here at Royal Birkdale 18 years ago, 53-year-old two-time Open Champion, Greg Norman, led the field by two strokes after three tough, windy days and he was the oldest player to ever lead the Open Championship through 54-holes but only 12 months later, 59-year-old, Tom Watson, smashed that record when he took a one-stroke lead into round four at Turnberry. Both men were eventually collared but they clearly demonstrate that this is a tournament where plenty of experience is a huge plus and age is not the barrier it is most weeks.

Given how well experienced players fare, it's perhaps not surprising that debutants have a woeful record. Morikawa, in 2021, was the first to win since Ben Curtis in 2003 and the last debutant before Curtis was Tom Watson in 1975.

The average age of the winners this century is 32.4.


Long-shots fare well in the Open

The last couple of winners have been well-fancied, but this has always been a great Championship for outsiders.

Ben Curtis, in 2003, and Todd Hamilton a year later were complete and utter rank outsiders and the three winners between 2009 and 2011 all went off at odds in excess of 300.0299/1.

Harman, who had been matched at a high of 460.0459/1 when the market first opened, began the week trading at around 170.0169/1 in 2023, despite being in fair form and being ranked as high as 25 in the world, and Lowry was a 100.099/1 chance in 2019.


Winner's position and Betfair Exchange price pre-round four

2025 - Scottie Scheffler - led by four strokes 1.222/9
2024 - Xander Schauffele - tied second, trailing by one 5.04/1
2023 - Brian Harman - led by five 1.654/6
2022 - Cam Smith - tied fourth, trailing by four 15.014/1
2021 - Collin Morikawa - solo second, trailing by one 3.1511/5
2020 - Event Cancelled
2019 - Shane Lowry - led by four strokes 1.635/8
2018 - Francesco Molinari - solo fifth, trailing by three 16.015/1
2017 - Jordan Spieth - led by three strokes 1.42/5
2016 - Henrik Stenson - led by a stroke 1.768/11
2015 - Zach Johnson - tied sixth, trailing by three 38.037/1
2014 - Rory McIlroy - led by six strokes 1.21/5
2013 - Phil Mickelson - tied ninth, trailing by five 27.026/1


In-running trends

Although he very nearly threw the title away (Matt Kuchar was matched at just 1.351/3), like the 1971 winner, Lee Trevino, Spieth won wire-to-wire here nine years ago and nobody has made a lot of ground up late on here.

All 10 previous course winners sat first of second with a round to go but a slow start can certainly be overcome.

Peter Thomson was six adrift and tied for 23rd back in 1965 and the three course winners before Spieth all started slowly. Harrington was five adrift and tied 38th after the opening day, Mark O'Meara sat seven off the pace and tied for 62nd after round one in 1998 and back in 1991, Ian Baker-Finch sat tied for 29th and five back. A slow start can be overcome here, and Spieth and Trevino are the only winners to be leading or tied for the lead after rounds one or two.

The trends here go against the grain somewhat as being up with the pace from the get-go is the norm at most Open Championships.

Molinari sat tied for 29th and six off the pace at halfway eight years ago and he was still three off the lead with a round to go but off the pace winners have been fairly common at the 2018 venue, Carnoustie.

While watching the coverage, you'll invariably hear the commentators say on several occasions that there's a long way to go and that there's plenty of time to make up lost ground or that anyone that makes the weekend can still win - words to that effect - but that's not really the case.

Those with long memories may recall Paul Lawrie's miraculous win at Carnoustie in 1999 from ten shots back with a round to go but that was a freak result of monumental proportions.

Mark O'Meara, who trailed by seven after round one here back in 1998, is the only winner in the last 30 years not to be within five strokes of the lead after the opening round.

Padraig Harrigton, who sat tied for 38th and five back when winning here in 2008, Stenson in 2016 (sat tied 12th), and the aforementioned Molinari, who sat tied for 18th and four off the lead, are the only three victors in the last 20 years not to be inside the top 10 after round one and seven of the last nine winners have sat first or second at halfway.

O'Meara, Harrington and Baker-Finch all muddy the waters a bit given they started slowly before winning at this particular venue but concentrating on the pacesetters from very early in is usually the best tactic in this major.


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