General Elections Betting: Fifty Seats That Will Decide The Election - Seats 26 - 30

General Election Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 20 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

George Galloway's reputation was tarnished after his appearance on Celebrity Big Brother

"This new constituency looks a genuine three horse race, now that Respect leader George Galloway has opted to fight here rather than neighbouring Bethnal Green and Bow, where he is the sitting MP. Doubtless Galloway is reckoning on the substantial Muslim vote swinging behind him, but it remains to be seen whether his reputation has survived the debacle of Celebrity Big Brother."

Paul Krishnamurty tells us which way some of the "swinging" constituencies such as Tynemouth and Ipswich could go in what could prove to be crucial seats in determining the outcome of the upcoming general elections.

Stirling

Conservative Target No. 100 (5.45% swing required)

No region of Britain has more comprehensively rejected the Conservatives over the past decade, so Stirling represents a key test of how effectively David Cameron has buried the Thatcherite legacy. They did hold this seat until 1997, and in another era, the largely middle-class electorate would have been solid Conservative. Much will depend on the choices of the 20% that voted Lib Dem in 2005, with that party expected to face a squeeze in Scotland.

Verdict: One of the Tories' best Scottish chances.

Poplar and Limehouse

Conservative Target No. 105 (5.75% swing required)

This new constituency looks a genuine three horse race, now that Respect leader George Galloway has opted to fight here rather than neighbouring Bethnal Green and Bow, where he is the sitting MP. Doubtless Galloway is reckoning on the substantial Muslim vote swinging behind him, but it remains to be seen whether his reputation has survived the debacle of Celebrity Big Brother. The Tories have little history in London's East End and a mountain to climb mathematically, but have benefitted from gentrification and could plausibly edge past a split opposition.

Verdict: Labour still just about favourites in the East End.

Tynemouth

Conservative Target No. 108 (5.85% swing required)

Another critical test of Brand Cameron's popularity in areas previously hostile to the Conservatives. If they can win a North-East marginal like this, they will expect to win an overall majority. Local electoral trends, such as a recent mayoral contest in North Tyneside, suggest they are making headway but the task is still far from straightforward.

Verdict: Tories rate as marginal favourites, but that would change if their national poll lead narrows.

Ipswich

Conservative Target No. 109 (6% swing required)

The fact that Ipswich is only 109 on the Tory target list, in other words below the mark required to gain an overall majority, indicates the scale of their task. It is a seat they have won only three times since the 1930s, and has been Labour since 1992. Nevertheless, the fact its in the South-East and that there are no significant third party complications does make it a very plausible target.

Verdict: A truly pivotal seat, and too close to call at this stage.

Warwick and Leamington

Conservative Target No. 117 (6.4% swing required)

This seat is particularly significant because, at 117th place on the Tory target list, it would theoretically be the one that takes them over the line to an overall majority. It isn't that simple, of course, because many supposedly easier targets are held by parties other than Labour. It is a pivotal seat in other respects though, in so far as this is a particularly marginal region, and that in order to win it, the Tories would need to attract many more urban voters than has been the norm in recent decades.

Verdict: If Labour can't win urban Midlands seats like this, they're history.