General Election Betting: The complete portfolio

General Election Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 04 May 2010 / Leave a Comment

Effigies of the party leaders hanging outside the London Dungeon

"There is roughly the same chance of Elvis being elected as PM as Labour winning a majority. For the Tories to get 350, they would have to score something like 40% nationally, and no poll has shown them at that level for months."

The leaders look knackered, there are no more debates and the polls aren't shifting. As Britain prepares to make up its mind, Paul Krishnamurty wraps up his 2010 General Election bets.

As we enter the final furlong of this marathon election campaign, it appears the electorate has broadly made up its mind. Despite recent potential game-changers like the final leaders' debate, and Bigotgate, the polls have barely changed over the past week. In fact they've been fairly constant since the Lib Dem surge, that followed the first debate.

With no obvious reason to think anything will change between now and Thursday, it's time to wrap up all my predictions, and restate the best bets. Firstly, here's my prediction for the national share of the vote, with the projected seat totals.

Conservatives 36% (313 seats)
Liberal Democrats 28% (98 seats)
Labour 26% (206 seats)

You may notice that these predictions are very anti-Labour. The Tory poll share is higher than recent surveys, whereas Labour are at the lower end. The latest 'Gold Standard' ICM poll suggests 33/28/28. The seat totals are also markedly different than conventional prediction models such as Electoral Calculus. Their conversion of my vote share predictions produces Con 301/Lab 226/LD 91. On the ICM numbers, their prediction is for Labour to win the most seats, on 267/260/91.

Three reasons lie behind my unconventional predictions, that were arrived at by studying and making a pick in each of the 650 constituencies. Firstly, Labour have a long history of failing to live up to polling expectations. Secondly, there are vast disparities in terms of resources on the ground. Whereas the Tories and Lib Dems have both run industrious campaigns in their target seats, the Labour Party is broke and demoralised. Thirdly, seat projection models that try and translate uniform national swing are of limited use in this age of multi-party politics.

No Overall Majority/Conservative Seats Update

I've written a series of articles over the past couple of years advising No Overall Majority, at various prices at or around [3.0]. The most recent was at [2.8], along with Conservatives to win between 325 and 349 seats at [4.0]

With NOM now [2.1], having traded at odds-on last week, it would be easy to green up. I won't be bothering, though, beyond ensuring that 325 - 349 remains onside. Granted, this is an unpredictable election, and I'm quite prepared to accept my projections could be wrong by 20 or so seats. Anything beyond that margin of error seems unlikely. There is roughly the same chance of Elvis being elected as PM as Labour winning a majority. For the Tories to get 350, they would have to score something like 40% nationally, and no poll has shown them at that level for months.

If you're only starting a book now on this market, my pick would be the 300 - 324 band at [3.75]. My prediction of 313 lies right in the middle.

Recommended Bet: Conservative to win 300 - 324 seats @ [3.75]

Liberal Democrat Seats Update

One of the great annoyances of this election campaign has been hearing 'experts' in the media saying nobody could have predicted the rise of Nick Clegg's Liberal Democrats. Perhaps those ensconsed in the Westminster Village should listen to the punting community more often, as anyone who followed my advice two months ago to buy Lib Dem seats at 54.5 is sitting very pretty.

The current spread is around 84-85, so a 30 point profit could be guaranteed. Given that I'm predicting them to get nearly 100, there is obviously no sense in selling back now though. As was the case back then, there is much more upside than downside on these figures. The Lib Dems are notoriously good local campaigners, and are expected to perform much better in the 120-odd seats they've specifically targetted.

Recommended Bet: Lib Dems to win 85 seats or more at [1.8]

Bet of the Day Update

Finally, listed below are all 15 'Bet of the Day' picks. As the campaign has drawn on, there is only one bet I slightly regret; on the Conservatives winning less than 275 seats. That combined [6.0] chance would be a decent bet on those electoral calculus projections, but as argued above, I'm expecting the Tories to overperform.

Lib Dems to win Sheffield Central
Labour to win Dunfermline & West Fife
Lib Dems to win Leyton & Wanstead
Any Other Party to win Castle Point
Lib Dems to win Ealing Central & Acton
Conservatives to win Keighley
Conservatives to win Crewe & Nantwich
Conservatives to win less than 275 seats
Conservatives to win Morley & Outwood
Lib Dems to win Hull North
Sell Labour seats at 213
Conservatives to win Middlesborough South & East Cleveland
Conservatives to win Darlington
Greens to win a seat
Lib Dems to win Streatham