General Election Betting / Maxliu / 22 April 2010 / 1 Comments

The second Party Leaders' Debate takes place at the Arnolfini Centre in Bristol tonight. The subject is foreign policy and the first question will be put at about 8:00 pm. Max Liu will be blogging live for Betting.Betfair as the exchanges unfold. Email him with your views at HaveYourSay@Betfair.com.

Good evening and welcome to Betting.Betfair's Election Debate Live Blog. Before we get down to business, it's a good idea to check the Betfair markets to see how things stand at the outset.

Everybody knows that Nick Clegg's performance in the first debate has been the story of the election so far - that's why the odds on a Liberal Democrat majority were slashed from [930.00] to [42.00] at the end of last week. A hung parliament is now the most likely outcome, according to the markets, with No Marjority trading at [1.86]. A Conservative majority is [2.46] while Labour are way out at [22.0].

Let's see if those prices change as dramatically after the second debate as they did after the first...

Betfair General Election Odds at the close of debate:
No overall majority - [1.81]
Conservative majority - [2.62]
Labour majority - [18.0]

NC - If we do things differently we can lead the world (sounds a bit sub-Obama). Something exciting is happening. People are hoping and believing we can do things differently.

DC - That sounds desperate. We need new leadership. The family comes first for me (yawn). We face difficult times but have great days ahead with a clean break from 13 years of failure. don't let anyone tell you that this time it can't be different. It can.

GB - The buck stops here (yes, and?). We will not give up our weapons unless other nations will. The Tories and Lib Dems would put economic recovery at risk. We have achieved too much to throw it away now. David, you're a risk to the economy. Nick, you are a risk to security.

Closing statements...

The final straight beckons - it's up for grabs so who will step up?

21:22 - GB says immigration is coming down.

21:20 - Cameron joins criticism of Lib Dem amnesty and dismisses idea of regional immigration, says on Conservatives offer real change (sounds hollow but he is taking a softer line, which could be canny).

21:19 - GB says he's introducing a control to count everyone in, everyone out, as well as playing up the points system. He criticises Lib Dem amnesty again - clearly playing to the right.

21:17 - NC criticises current policy - he calls for tighter controls, notably harder line than last week where he scored poorly. DC says current level is too high (shock). He says Tories are only party to bring immigration down - interestingly he sounds more compassionate this time. GB slams NC's proposed amnesty on illegals.

(For Cameron, this should be a starter for 10. But let's see if either NC or GB can turn the tables... )

How will you make immigration fairer?

21:12 - DC says he would have National Security council sitting as war cabinet to fight terror. Traditional Tory strong on defence talk - should play well with voters. Conservatives remain [2.76] with Labour back out to [17.5].

21:11 - GB says DC is a risk to the economy and NC is risk to security.

21:08 - DC critcises Labour jobs tax and invokes business leaders' petition. NC accuses DC of ludicrous claims. GB says New Labour have history of working productively with other parties. He says he has made correct decision in financial crisis and lead Britain towards recovery.

21:07 - GB says there isn't sufficent economic consensus between parties and vows to take recovery forward.

21:06 - NC calls for more openess about financial black hole and denies hung parliament would mean market armagedon.

21:05 - DC says hung parliament would not be a good thing and would jeopardise economic recovery.

Is coalition government the best way forward?

21:00 - NC blames Labour for 2.5 million pensioners being in poverty and goes to warn of debate collapsing into game of political ping pong.

20:58 - GB accuses NC of cutting winter fuel allowance. DC says Tories will keep pensioner's benefits and accuses Labour of lying about Tory policy on pensioners.

20:57 - NC says utility rates are unjust and says he will restore pensioner's dignity.

20:55 - GB and DC say no (it's that simple).

Is £59 per week an adequate pension? (doh, no)

20:51- At just over half-way, it's all pretty even... No overall majority is trading at [1.79], Tory majority is out to [2.76] but Labour are in to [16.5] from [22.0] - does this mean voters are impressed by GB? is this because he's just pointed out that those who stand most to gain from a Tory government are the 3000 richest people in Britain?

20:50 - Twice in the same sentence NC refers to the "old parties."

20:49 - Cameron calls for voters to take personal responsibility.

20:48 - GB says no punishment to strong for corrupt MPs and makes A-level standard connection between everyday life and politics.

20:47 - NC points out that more youngsters are registering to vote in this election and calls for us to, "get stuck in."

20:46 - DC promises total transparency and vows to cut cost of politics.

20:45 - GB says he'll give us the right to remove MPs (isn't that what voting is for? Don't we live in an indirect, as opposed to direct, democracy?)

20:44 - NC says Lib Dems are the party to clean up politics and alludes to electoral reform.

How will you restore faith in politics after the expenses scandals?

20:39 - GB talks movingly about experience of meeting vicitims who have been abused by Catholic priests before backing Pope's visit. He calls for us to breakdown barriers between faiths.

20:38 - NC welcomes visit but demands process of openness about abuses in Catholic Church.

20:37 - DC says we should respect faith and welcomes Pope's visit but says he doesn't agree with him on abortion, homosexuality etc and condemns

20:36 - Will you disassociate your party from the Pope and do you back his visit?

20:35 - NC answers charge of anti-Americanism, saying we can't be at beck and call of America. GB tells DC to rethink policies on Europe. DC accuses GB of scare-mongering.

20:32 - Talking about nuclear power, GB manages to smile between words. Try it, it uses a lot of face muscles... He says he has achieved global consensus on climate change and accuses NC of anti-Americanism again (sounds like a cheap shot the second time).

20:27 - GB likes trains and wants a world agreement on climate change. Cameron says proper insulation can make your life cheaper. NC likes trains too but concedes, "I don't do enough." Is this the frankness that is drawing voters to him?

What are you doing personally to tackle climate change?

20:24 - DC says NC's policy on trident leaves us vulnerable. NC points to letter in Times from army generals who said trident is outdated. GB tells NC, Get real about the danger we face from Iran and North Korea. DC says he agrees with GB.

20:22 - GB spouts platitudes about bravery of our forces. DC joins him (apparently he went jogging with a soldier this morning). These are valid points but it is stating the obvious in that nobody in their right mind doubts the troops bravery - it's not really the point.

20:20 - NC promises defence spending review.

20:18 - DC says he would think carefully about whether conflict was in Britain's interests. (like, yeah...). He says we are currently not doing enough to resolve political situation in Afghanistan.

20:17 - GB says we are fighting in Afghanistan to keep Britain safe.

20:16 - Will UK support future multi-national wars against terrorism?

20:15- GB accuses DC and NC of squabbling like little boys. Audience laugh. He says DC is anti-European and NC is anti-American. It's a good line and this is a formidable start from the PM.

20:12 - GB says DC has alienated other European leaders and aligned himself with right wing extremists

20:11 - Are the giant shards off Union Jack which make up the backdrop of the set a metaphor for broken Britain?

20:10 - GB says DC's policies on Europe would jeopardise economic recovery...

20:07 - GB says 3.5 millions jobs depend on Europe. GB echoes NC but says DC's policies would jepoardise these things.

20:06 - NC says we can't deal with climate change or regulate "wretched banks" on our own. We are better off in Europe.

20:05 - DC says we should be in Europe but not rule by Europe. He promises to keep the pound and says he would stand up for Britain in Europe.

What are the leaders' policies on Europe?

20:04 - Clegg says UK should have invaded Iraq but says we can be proud of our role in the world once again.

20:00 - Brown promises a fairer, more prosperous Britain, going all Leonard Cohen on us to say, "I'm your man." An assured start.

20:00 - Adam Boulton introduces the candidates.

19:52 - The gloves are likely to be off tonight. The pleasantries of the first debate will be abandoned as GB and DC look to kill of the Clegg effect. NC could score big if he reminds voters that the Lib Dems have always been against the war in Iraq but GB and DC will look to expose him on Trident - they both favour a like for like replacement of Britain's nuclear detrerrent and will accuse him of planning to abandon it and leaving us vulnerable to an attack from Iran (or China as Cameron helpfully put it in Manchester).

It will be interesting to see how DC handles Europe - a can of worms for the Tories over the last two decades. GB could be accused of possible MI5 complicity in torture and inadequate equipment for our troops.
19:51 - Big-jawed, booming-voiced men of all parties are having their say. Whatever...

19:50 - GB, DC and NC - as they will all be known from hereon - have all arrived. Good, we start in 10 minutes...

19:40 - Malcolm Tuck... I mean, Alastair Campbell says Brown won the first debate on substance and is a far better PM than either of his rivals could be. However, he believes Cameron will be more impressive tonight. He accuses Sky of being obsessed with body language. Campbell decrying British politics' preoccupation with appearances? Black-pot-kettle, anyone?

19:00 - Ed Balls says Brown is the man to represent Britain's interests on the world stage. Danny Alexandor says the Lib Dems offer hope. Theresa May denies Cameron wobbled in the first debate and says he has the energy to take the country forwards.

18:45 - Can Clegg keep up the momentum? Can Cameron claw himself back into the lead or will Gordon give the performance of his life and put Labour ahead for the first time?

We're waiting for the leaders to arrive at the Arnolfini. There are a few hundred protesters -anti-capitalist and anti-war as well as members of the far right - outside. Sky say there are "real tensions" and believe that the subject of tonight's debate - foreign policy - has brought out the protesters.

That may be so but it's disappointing that Sky describe them as "extreme groups"; being opposed to the occupation of Iraq - a position many voters with moderate views hold - is clearly not the same as being anti-capitalist and certainly not in the same league - in terms of extremism - as the far right.

Comments (1)

1. anon | 22 April 2010

   All three parties seem to be missing the point on Immigration. Their ignorance or total niavety scares me. Why will they not mention Asylum?? We all know that ANYONE who mentions the majic word is automatically admitted into the UK whilst their claim is considered. Why bother applying as a student or migrant worker when asylum will get you in. They are supported at the tax payers expense whilst this claim is ongoing and once refused, they abscond into the abyss, only found by chance and quite often working illegally. Why won't they even consider the fact that once here, asylum seekers are flatly refusing to go home. And why would they when its so attractive to stay in the UK. Do you not think these people know exactly how to play the system?? Do you not think young men are seeking out girls to bear their children because they know its highly unlikey they'll be removed without them. Its about time these parties got real and listened to the voting public, yes, thats us, we the public who pay your wages. Its about time we got tough and stopped treating these people as if they had an absolute right to be here. Put a cap on how much each solicitor rapes from the Legal aid fund to represent asylum seekers. They should get one chance and one chance only. The people of Britain are fed up of this and the politicians and judges are to blame.

Post a comment

Name:

Email Address:

URL:

Remember personal info?

Comment: