General Election Betting: Fifty seats that will decide the election - Seats 31 - 35

General Election Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 27 February 2010 / Leave a Comment

Will Cameron's approach pay off?

"There is arguably no greater test of David Cameron's leadership style than Hammersmith. Should working-class, black, 'A-List' candidate Shaun Bailey triumph, it will demonstrate that Cameron's strategy is winning over parts of the electorate that his predecessors had failed to reach."

Another five Westminster seats in the balance from Paul Krishnamurty

Hampstead and Kilburn
Conservative Target No. 120 (6.5% swing required)

All three parties have plausible claims in this redrawn constituency, with the Lib Dems starting favourite, assuming that notional figures putting them less than 2,000 behind are correct. Labour look vulnerable now that long-term MP Glenda Jackson is standing down, but if they could hold on, it would suggest they are back in the game to win most seats. Equally were the Conservatives to win from a distant third, it would strongly suggest they were headed for a majority, and demonstrate an ability to make inroads against both rivals.

Verdict: The best of several chances for the Lib Dems to strengthen in London.

Argyll and Bute
Conservative Target No. 122 (6.5% swing required)

Here's a seat well-known to electoral historians, famous for being the closest thing we have to a four-way marginal. True to form, it is not impossible to imagine victory for the SNP, despite their distant fourth in 2005. This Highland constituency represents a vast area of remote islands and rural communities, so local factors often over-ride the national picture. That might be enough to save the vulnerable Lib Dem incumbent.

Verdict: Lib Dems to hold on in another tight race

Hammersmith
Conservative Target No. 129 (6.75% swing required)

There is arguably no greater test of David Cameron's leadership style than Hammersmith. Should working-class, black, 'A-List' candidate Shaun Bailey triumph, it will demonstrate that Cameron's strategy is winning over parts of the electorate that his predecessors had failed to reach. Previously, this inner-city area would have been a very tough ask for any Tory, but the impressive Bailey has a high profile as he runs a prominent local kids' charity, My Generation.

Verdict: Shaun Bailey's victory to provide one of the stories of the night.

Brighton Pavillion
Conservative Target No. 135 (7.1% swing required)

Here's another potential headline maker, as the Greens bid to win their first Westminster seat. Though they'll need to come from third place to do so, their well-known leader Caroline Lucas appears to be the favourite, as there has been a mass transfer of votes from Labour to the Greens in recent local politics. As they held the seat in 1992, the Conservatives have hopes too.

Verdict: Greens to break through at last

Luton South
Conservative Target No. 140 (7.35% swing required)

We can expect to hear plenty from Luton South throughout the campaign, as TV presenter Esther Rantzen is standing in protest against the MPs expenses scandal. Labour have predictably ditched the disgraced Margaret Moran, but would be under pressure even without the fallout from that scandal. However, the Rantzen effect remains highly unpredictable, and has the potential to dilute plausible Tory and Lib Dem challenges, or even produce her own stunning blow against the political establishment.

Verdict: A genuine four-way marginal