General Election Bet of the Day: Lib Dems to win Streatham

Election Bet of the Day / Paul Krishnamurty / 04 May 2010 / Leave a Comment

Nick Clegg in Streatham

"Clegg will need a further 9% to gain Streatham, slightly more than the expected national swing, but very manageable if recent London polls are to be believed."

Nick Clegg's impressive appearance in Streatham could make the difference in this inner-city seat which Paul Krishnamurty believes the Lib Dems are set to steal from Labour.

At this late stage of the campaign, a useful clue for punters is to follow the schedules of the party leaders. Obviously, they are bound to visit the few constituencies where they are in serious contention, and where their presence could make the difference.

Nick Clegg was in Streatham yesterday, where he gave an impressive speech to a notably large crowd. This is exactly the type of diverse, inner-city seat where the Lib Dems are threatening to replace Labour. Until 2005 it had been as safe as houses, before the unpopularity of the Iraq war handed the Lib Dems a 10% swing, bringing it within range.

Clegg will need a further 9% to gain Streatham, slightly more than the expected national swing, but very manageable if recent London polls are to be believed. My only slight concern is that the first-time Labour candidate, Chuka Umunna, is one of their best prospects. Nevertheless, I'd be sceptical that he's been able to make enough of a personal impact to over-ride these strong national and regional trends.

At the very least, this looks on a knife-edge so [2.5] about the challengers must rate good value.