Argento Chase: Pride and glory at last for Diamond Harry?

Jamie Lynch / Jamie Lynch / 28 January 2012 / Leave a Comment

Number cruncher Carol Vorderman.

"Handicapping is a discipline that requires discipline for it to work best. It's a hands-on practice..."

The big issue this weekend was supposed to be Grands Crus, and his chance on the ratings is still worth discussing says Jamie Lynch, but stay tuned until the end because he thinks he's found the winner anyway.

Sometimes I'm so proud to be British I could burst. That said, the Pride of Britain Awards in its current guise, though worthy, misses the point. Making sick or underprivileged children feel better, patting a community do-gooder on the back and recognising the armed forces should all be done as a matter of course, day in day out, and not saved for a glitzy ceremony. But if that's what it takes to get a meet-and-greet with Carol Vorderman, then I'd happily combine all three and wear a clown suit on the front line while holding an outsized congratulations banner.

The Pride of Britain Awards should be about celebrating the areas in which Britain still leads the world, or at least Europe. In EU surveys in recent years, Britain has topped the table for, amongst other things, drug use, teenage pregnancy, asthma sufferers, sick days, obesity rates and, needless to say, gambling.

All together now:

Land of dope and glory, teenage mother of three,
How shall asthma help me, lets me pull a sickie.
Wider still and wider, shall our girths be set,
God, who gave us betting, give me more ways to bet;
God, who gave us betting, give me...(either commit to the high note or just mime)...MORE ways to bet.

Something else that the Brits apparently do best is waste energy. While we supposedly spend and expend energy like a drunken sailor, which nation do you think was rated most efficient? Yes, returning at a Betfair SP of 1.08, and ashamedly reinforcing positive stereotypes, it was Germany. According to the review, Britons leave chargers on three times as much as Germans, they leave standby buttons on twice as much and forget to switch lights off four times as much. Hmmmm. Here we have yet another pseudo-scientific study I'm not buying into, especially when the researchers go on to claim that - and this is absolutely true, word for word - 'about a quarter of 18 to 24-year-olds do feel moderately guilty about the impact their energy use has on the environment.'

What!

I've been 18 to 24 and I've seen 18 to 24s, and if they're expected to feel any shame, let alone actually feel any shame, about leaving their Nokia plugged in, rather than focusing on contributing to Britain's onward push at the top of the league tables for fun and fornication, then it's a very sad state of affairs.

If, however, you're over 25 or responsible or tight and you want to save on energy, you can pay £200 to someone who'll come round and assess your usage in the industry terms of confirmed ratings and projected ratings. Now, at last, we're getting where we probably should have been about four paragraphs ago, because confirmed ratings and projected ratings sound like Timeform-speak. We do confirmed ratings, but we don't do projected ratings. The subject stimulator was Grands Crus, who would have had five horses rated ahead of him by Timeform had he lined up in the Argento Chase and who would be over 20 lb behind Long Run and Kauto Star were he to go straight for the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

We know. We know that doesn't do justice to what Grands Crus will be capable of, but we're confident it's an accurate representation of what he's done so far in his little time over fences and, as handicappers, that's all we can do, and all we should do. The temptation is to boost Grands Crus's figure so that he looks to have a better chance, but to arbitrarily project ratings - up or down - goes against the bedrock principles of Timeform and indeed handicapping in general. Handicapping is a discipline that requires discipline for it to work best. It's a hands-on practice, and Timeform's hands are well practiced, though sometimes our hands are tied, but better something is tied up than made up; would you rather make up the bed or be tied to the bed? And why am I suddenly thinking about Carol Vorderman again?

What Timeform has got as a means of some projection is our symbols: the 'p' to predict improvement, the '?' to cast doubt, and the 'x' and '§' to warn, about jumping and temperament respectively. Grands Crus has got a 'p', and Camelot had a large 'P' - denoting considerable improvement to come - when he, after just one run in a low-key maiden, went into the Group 1 Racing Post Trophy as bottom rated in another scenario in which our hands were tied. Everyone seemed to know he would win, having apparently broken several sets of sophisticated electrical timing equipment in his homework at Ballydoyle, but ratings can only express what we've seen and not what we hear or anticipate.

The only symbols involved in the field of nine for the Argento Chase at Cheltenham on Saturday are on Knockara Beau and Tidal Bay; an x on Knockara Beau for being a dodgy jumper and a § on Tidal Bay for being...Tidal Bay. It's seven weeks until the Gold Cup, and this is supposedly a trial, but in effect it's the Silver Cup, the big day for some chasers who fall short of the top level, with Captain Chris, Diamond Harry and Time For Rupert all fitting that bill.

The one for me is Diamond Harry. There's little between him and Captain Chris on Timeform ratings (only 1 lb in fact) and on a literal reading of their respective performances when taking on the 'big two' this season, though Diamond Harry matched them for longer at Haydock, and his proven stamina relative to Captain Chris could be the crucial factor over this trip in a race that's bound to be a stiff test with Midnight Chase, Little Josh and The Sawyer forcing the pace.

The fact he's fragile means it matters a lot when Diamond Harry does make it to the track, reflected by his excellent record when fresh, and it all adds weight to the belief that, to all intents and purposes, this is Gold Cup day for him. Despite what our ratings could say, he would have had Grands Crus to worry about, but that one's absence clears the way for Diamond Harry to remind everyone just how good he is, and he is very good. Don't forget that he's won ten of his fourteen races. Now that really is something to be proud of.

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Timeform's Horses to Follow Extra Festival Trials edition is out now and features no less than five big-race previews and an interview with Nigel Twiston-Davies.