Betfair Official Blog

To punt on the jumps or the Flat? That is the question...

Wayne Bailey explores a tricky problem for punters at this time of the year

"Spring is nature's way of saying let's party!"

That may be the view of funny-man Robin Williams, but it's certainly not a point of view that I share. Springtime for punters at least, means the season of more hard work.

I love to party as much as anyone, but as a racing fan, spring and summer signal that annual headache where the national hunt season crosses over with the flat. Yes folks, it's that time of the year... when we're faced with the dilemma of trying desperately to keep on top of what are effectively two sports, or else specialising on one code only - potentially missing good bets on the other.

So should we ignore the jumps now that the flat is here?

A number of professional punters that I know do just that, and wind down their jumps betting as April arrives. In Ireland at least, it seems hard to make it pay.

In my humble (if not cynical) opinion, the main reason it proves difficult to follow jumps during the spring and summer, is because we have to second-guess the trainers' reason for running their horses.

I wont go as far as saying that horses are not running to their merit, but are they truly out to win the race, or is the trainer giving their horse a last run or two as a season wind-down?

Has the jockey been told to go easy on the animal, whereas he'd be out hell for leather during the height of winter?

Other stables, I'm privately told, are simply keeping in business, and running horses to keep (often ignorant and impatient) owners happy throughout the summer. In public, trainers will deny this, but how then do they explain a win rate of 8% in the summer, when they normally win 20% during the season proper?

But it can't all be bad, and another way of looking at it is that some trainer HAS to win the race, and there are bound to be trainers out there trying hard to do just that - despite the fact that others like to tone down business.

The crux of my argument here, is that it all boils down to trying to spot the trainers who keep their horses fired up for summer, and the other type that slow down and take a less aggressive approach.

In Ireland, there are a number of key trainers to note at this time of the year (April to June).

Backing...

Christy Roche
Based at the Curragh, Roche showed a springtime profit in four out of the past five years. He has an impressive strike-rate of 22%, and shows a level stakes profit of £160 to £10 stakes.

Colm Murphy
I'm hoping that he can get my all-time favourite horse Brave Inca back in action soon, but in the meantime, it's worth following his horses in bumper (NHF) races. It's a small sample, but Murphy has won eight bumpers out of 41, in the past five years, and shows a profit of £190.60 to £10 stakes.

Joanna Morgan
The Meath-based handler is another that keeps the fires burning in the spring, with 44 winners from 196 bets in the past five years. Sticking a tenner on each would have shown a profit of £160 to £10 stakes.

Willie Mullins
While he shows a win rate of one in five during this time, proceed with caution. Certain years were very profitable, while others showed a minus. He's certainly worth noting, but do your homework and check the form for negatives.

Laying...

Firstly, I'm not suggesting in any way that the below trainers are not giving their all, but looking at the situation objectively, they simply don't do well at this time of the year...

Caroline Hutchinson
Based in Kildare, she's had no winners whatsoever at this time of the year, over the past five years (from 70 races). Based on this alone, it's hard to have confidence in any of her horses.

John J Walsh
The Corkman had just one springtime winner from 107 races in the past five years. Again, you must ask yourself if you'd want his horses carrying your money with those facts in mind?