Irish Racing / Wayne Bailey / 05 November 2009 / Leave a comment

The JNwine.com Chase is poorer without Kauto Star, but five English raiders make up for his absence and this is one of the most competitive renewals in years.

“As I write, Notre Pere is a fairly solid favourite trading around [2.6] and the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup winner will certainly relish the conditions should they remain soft or heavy.”

Saturday's JNwine.com Down Royal Champion Chase is shaping up to be a cracker, even without Kauto Star making an appearance this time around. Last year, the Paul Nicholls trained superstar won the race by 11 lengths, but his price of [1.45] made sure it was a race for watching, not punting.

While it's a shame that Irish racing fans won't get to see Kauto, the race has now turned out to be a very competitive affair in his absence as a number of horses have not been scared away. The early entry list was the largest in the ten year history of the race and a number of horses are rated in the 150s and 160s.

As I write, Notre Pere is a fairly solid favourite trading around [2.6] and the Punchestown Guinness Gold Cup winner will certainly relish the conditions should they remain soft or heavy. His trainer Jim Dreaper knows how to prepare a horse; and the gelding's first race outside of Ireland last year proved very fruitful, winning the Welsh Grand National at Chepstow. By my calculations, he should have a few pounds in hand on Saturday and will take all the beating.

Paul Nicholls sends over My Will, and the stats fans will point to that that trainer's fantastic record when bringing horses to Ireland (14 winners from 30 races since 2003, showing a level stakes profit of 30pts). I'm a big fan of this horse but he finds it hard to get his head in front and I'm not too keen on his chances at the weekend against strong domestic opposition.

2006 Lexus Chase winner The Listener will put up a challenge. It's probably fair to say that he didn't live up to expectations since that race - and he's had three different trainers to date. His performances under Nick Mitchell haven't been spectacular - but if he runs to his true form he may just manage to place.

The 2006 Gold Cup hero War Of Attrition is friendless priced in double figures and the ten-year-old's best days are in the past. Then again, he's rarely out of the placings and he looked like he needed the run last-time-out at Gowran. I'd like to see him do well but his odds are a fair reflection of his chances. Throw Joe Lively, Roll Along and Schindler's Hunt into the mix and this could be a very enjoyable spectacle indeed - but all considered Notre Pere looks a good bet and will carry my money on the nose.

On Friday, we've two Grade 3 races to look forward to and the WKD Core Hurdle can go to the Noel Meade trained Go Native. He was unlucky enough to come up against the likes of Hurricane Fly last season, but make no mistake - he's a very decent hurdler and has potential.

I'm involved with a horse down in Colm Murphy's yard and I know from my visits to the stable that Colm thinks highly of Voler La Vedette. She ran very well at Punchestown on her seasonal reappearance, and has now made it five wins from seven races. Go Native will be hard to beat but Voler La Vedette is certainly entitled to go close.

Half-an-hour earlier, Premier Victory should have enough in hand to take the Grade 3 Mares' Hurdle. She hasn't done much to write home about so far this season, but she's a better horse than her latest form suggests. This could get tricky however with Grangeclare Gold expected to go well so I think I'll sit this one out and take a watching brief instead.

Best of luck with your Down Royal betting!

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Tags: Colm Murphy, Down Royal, Go Native, Irish Racing, JNwine.com Chase, My Will, Noel Meade, Notre Pere, Paul Nicholls, Wayne Bailey