Should we be bothered by the 'Bounce Theory'?

General / Simon Rowlands / 16 January 2008 / Leave a Comment

Simon Rowlands is distinctly dubious on the value of Ragozin's system...

Following on from last week's blog, Betfair now has a market up for the going at this year's Cheltenham Festival (taken as the majority official description for the scheduled opening hurdle race), in which Good to Soft is favourite ( 2.2), followed by Good (2.6) and Soft (4.4).

This probably says as much about people's perceptions of the politics that lies behind official going descriptions at the track as about what the ground is actually likely to be, but it'll be interesting to see how things unfold.

Also following on from last week's blog, a reader (yes, I have one) asked me to explain the so-called Bounce Theory and what I felt its limitations were.

One of the problems of the theory, first popularised by American "handicapper" Len Ragozin, is that it is seldom clearly defined and therefore is difficult to prove or disprove.

In essence, however, it states that horses have a tendency to "bounce" - that is, put in a much worse performance - after a particularly strong run. In Britain it has often been used to describe a horse that has run particularly well after a break and then flopped.

I do not have a problem with the basic concept that a superlative performance may be followed by a mediocre one on account of the horse not having recovered sufficiently. But there are a few other important considerations.

Firstly, horses which have had a break have done so for a reason. It may be that they are difficult to keep sound and that their training problems will resurface sooner (as when perceived to have "bounced") rather than later.

Then there is the question of regression to the mean, a principle which was covered much better than I could ever manage in David Edelman's essential 2001 book "The Compleat Horseplayer". Edelman points out that "if performances are selected on 'highs', then subsequent performances will tend to disappoint."

Importantly, Edelman flips the Bounce Theory on its head and states that "horses which put in an uncharacteristically poor performance generally (unless an injury or some other mishap has occurred (see above) do better the next time out."

I would also add that most advocates of the Bounce Theory seem to regard not just a good performance but a good performance backed up by a good time as the measure of a Bounce candidate. Overall race times are not the best way of measuring performance (more so in the UK and Ireland than in the US, admittedly) and exceptional times are, by their nature, unlikely to be repeated immediately.

One of the biggest problems I have with the Bounce Theory, however, is that it cannot be reproved in a given instance. Whereas the contention that Dobbin ran a stinker because it does not act on soft going can be proved or disproved by Dobbin running a number of times on soft going subsequently, the contention that Dobbin ran a stinker because it "bounced" in essence cannot be.

Theory has a horrible habit of coming unstuck when it runs into reality (and don't I know it...). I managed to get the theory on Angel Voices - given an excellent front-running ride by promising young Declan Cannon - right at Kempton last Wednesday but then had to suffer the heartache of the two horses I put up as lays at Southwell on Thursday getting stuffed in a race that was subsequently voided.

The "winner" of the race that never was, Jord, tries his luck again at Southwell at 15:30 on Thursday but looks to face a stiffer task against the likes of My Mentor and King's Ransom.

More interesting propositions on the card look to be a back of Government in the 14:00 and lays of some or all of Dickie Le Davoir, Neardown Beauty and Realt Na Mara in the 14:30.

Government caught a tartar in Ginger Princess over course and distance last time, in a race in which the sectionals were good, and faces nothing of that calibre here.

Dickie Le Davoir looks beatable back in a handicap after a successful spell in claimers; Neardown Beauty is hard to win with and making her debut on Fibresand; and Realt Na Mara has the ability to complete his hat-trick but seemed not to stay seven furlongs when tried previously. ou will have four others on your side if you lay this trio.