Handicappers' Corner: Camelot proves the King of the castle

Bloggers / David Johnson / 25 October 2011 / Leave a Comment

Camelot oozed class at Doncaster.

"Race standards for the Racing Post Trophy suggest a rating of between 114 and 119 for Camelot and he has been awarded a figure of 117..."

Form rather than hype, substance over style, achievement more than potential. That has long been the Timeform mantra, but this weekend's best Flat action provided an exception. Timeform Flat handicapper David Johnson explains.

The final British Group 1 of 2011 took place on Saturday, and in truth this year's Racing Post Trophy was a weak one. A field of five was the smallest for the race since American Post beat three rivals in 2004 and the pedestrian gallop casts further doubt on the bare form.

Camelot had probably the weakest form of all of the contenders coming into the race, too, rated just 92P on the back of winning a weak five-runner Leopardstown maiden. What's more, it's fair to say that recent impressive winners of the Racing Post Trophy haven't always turned out to be what they seemed.

But all this can be put to one side for the time being with Camelot winning in the style of a colt who gives racing fans a great deal to look forward to.

Race standards for the Racing Post Trophy suggest a rating of between 114 and 119 for Camelot and he has been awarded a figure of 117, lower than all of the previous five winners. But the poor time and small field are factors in this, and he remains with considerable potential, reflected in the large P symbol retained on that rating. A typical Derby winner would need to run to a figure in the mid-120s, and Camelot now trades at [4.2] for the Epsom showpiece.

Runner-up Zip Top and third Fencing both posted improved efforts, earning ratings of 111, and are likely to make three-year-olds themselves.

It was a similar story in the St Simon Stakes at Newbury, where the most lightly-raced horse, Beaten Up, came out on top. His two previous wins hardly looked the strongest form, but he now appeals as of Group 1 potential on the back of his defeat of Al Kazeem by four and a half lengths, an effort which earns him a rating of 123p.

The Horris Hill, which shared top billing on the Newbury card, failed to produce such a commanding winner, form pick Saigon looking unlucky as he could finish only second, beaten two lengths, by Tell Dad. Tell Dad's rating improves to 107, on the lower end of the race standards range and Saigon remains ahead of him on 110.

As the UK Flat season winds down, the jumps season has been beginning to get into top gear.

Master Minded returned in the Old Roan Chase at Aintree but was a long way below form in last of three. The form of the race as a whole looks deeply suspect, with runner-up Pure Faith being beaten only a length despite being 22 lb out of the handicap.

Albertas Run typically improves for a run and he remains rated 165, probably not needing to run to anywhere near that figure in a race that was run in a slower time than the much lower grade handicap chase at the same trip later on the card.

The best jumps performance of the weekend came from Tataniano in the two-mile handicap chase at Chepstow. He'd looked very promising as a novice and got back on track, running to 170 in giving 21 lb and an 8 length beating to Nomechecki.

Tataniano should be up to mixing it with the very best in the division at the minimum jumps trip, as average ratings for the winner of the Tingle Creek (164) and Champion Chase (169) in the last five seasons testify.

Elsewhere on the Chepstow card, Fingal Bay made a most taking hurdling debut to win the Grade 2 Persian War Novices Hurdle by six lengths from Baile Anrai, earning a rating of 138P.